One of the most common mistakes sports bettors make is letting emotion play too much a factor when betting. One of the biggest problems of betting football is the teams play only once a week. Bettors see their selections often go down in flames or surpass their wildest dreams in a positive fashion.
With a whole week to think about it, along with listening to sports talk radio, television, podcasts, reading articles and newsletters, the thought process can become unbalanced. Was your selection right or wrong based on one team having an extreme edge in turnovers? Or possibly odd occurrences in special teams?
One way to check emotional betting at the proverbial door is to develop useful power ratings.
This approach, if done properly, allows you as the bettor to start your wagering process free of emotion and be more analytical from the start. How does one start the process, let’s talk about a couple of methods.
Doing All Your Own Work
Nobody starts creating power ratings without help. What we would recommend to start with is doing Google search – NFL and or College Football Power Ratings. Look for those that are for 2018. It might be a little early for some websites, but they will have them soon.
This gives you a starting point. One question you might have is how do you know if they are accurate? A good test you can do now is to compare their ratings against the Week 1 lines that are already out in the NFL and college.
In the NFL, randomly choose five games and compare their ratings versus the actual line. Here is an example of what it should look like for the Thursday Night opening contest.
Atlanta -99 and Philadelphia -100
Next, add three points for Philadelphia playing at home and the Eagles are a four-point favorite, which is what they are at this time.
Choose four other games and if they are spot on or all within a point, you can likely trust them to start the season.