Consequential Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 17th


For line moves, we start with a NBA and college basketball game and also look ahead to what has happened for both NFL championship contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (707) MINNESOTA at (708) SAN ANTONIO 8:35  FSNO, FSSW  (side and total)	Though Minnesota has won three of four and is 4-1 ATS of late, they have not faced San Antonio in that stretch and the Timberwolves have been taken from +10.5 to +12 for this road contest. Being 0-8 and 1-7 ATS undoubtedly versus the Spurs has a great deal to do with this adjustment. We also have a sinking total, which is down three points to 200. However, given the T-Wolves defense and the Spurs at 11-2 OVER at home after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half, we will go the other way.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Over and 90% on San Antonio

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, lean San Antonio


Have some MAC action on Tuesday and we find Ball State pumped up from -3 to -5. At first glance hard to overlook Central Michigan has edge in making three more 3-point shots a contest over the Cardinals. Yet when we dig deeper, we discover the Chippewas have lost and failed to cover three straight as road underdogs and could get killed on the glass in road/home scenario, being -7 in rebounding compared to +8 for Ball State.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Ball State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ball State

NFL – (311) GREEN BAY at (312) ATLANTA 3:05 ET  FOX

Atlanta was sent out as a -4 betting favorite over Green Bay and by Tuesday was bumped up to -5. The thinking of course is despite how great Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been, the Packers depleted defense, especially the secondary,  will not be able to contain Matt Ryan and all the offensive weapons the Falcons have. While Rodgers and Green Bay is a fascinating story, hard to find fault with this line of thinking unless the Dirty Birds start turning the ball over, which appears unlikely since they have one turnover in last five games.

The total has been bouncing around after opening at 60. It was surprising to see the total down to 59 at most sportsbooks Monday morning considering the last game was 33-32 shootout. However, 24 hours later the number was elevated to 61, which at least in theory makes sense.

Looking at the circumstances closer, Atlanta is 14-2-1 OVER this season, 9-0 OVER at the Georgia Dome and 10-0 OVER as a favorite, all rather impressive numbers. In reviewing Green Bay’s numbers, we find similar circumstances, just over a longer stretch of time. The Packers are 19-5 OVER after four or more consecutive wins against the spread and 11-3 OVER off two or more consecutive OVER’s.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Green Bay and 68% on Over

NFL – (313) PITTSBURGH at (314) NEW ENGLAND  6:40 ET CBS

Comparatively speaking, the AFC championship has not had as much noise. The total was released at 50 and about half the sportsbooks checked were at 50.5 or 51, with the balance of them still at the same starting point. Looking deeper into the wagers placed in the first part of the week, it is virtually dead even, with bets placed equally on the OVER and UNDER. It will be very intriguing to follow this since both teams have been playing very good defense in assembling their lengthy winning streaks, which has us thinking a lower score. This is backed up with Pittsburgh being 15-4 UNDER as a road club and 6-0 UNDER away off a road victory.

As far as the games itself against the spread, New England was listed at -6. Again when reviewing the books, the majority were holding steady and the rest has moved the Steelers down to +5.5. The thought process since the beginning of the season has been if there was one AFC team which could derail the Patriots from making the Super Bowl it was Pittsburgh. What was not counted on from the start was how good the New England defense would become, as they have retooled themselves to have more speed. While some might complain the Pats have only played six games versus playoff teams, if the point spread is the great equalizer, than 14-3 ATS is awfully impressive.

Betting Trend – Nothing much yet


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 16-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 7-7 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 23-21ATS


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