Other than one National League matchup, the focus of the line moves will be on interleague play this evening. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (185-142) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (955) MILWAUKEE at (956) WASHINGTON 7:o5 ET FSWI, MASN
In this battle of NL division leaders, Milwaukee took the series opener and is garnering enough support in Game 2 to take the money line from +140 to around +115, given a take a few digits either way depending on the sportsbook. It is not obvious why this would happen as generally speaking Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) is having a slightly worse year than Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) and both pitchers have not had a lot of success against the other club. With neither team averaging more than 4 RPG in their last seven outings, I still like Gonzalez and the Nats at home.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (973) HOUSTON at (974) PHILADELPHIA 7:07 ET CSP
With both starting pitchers in fine form, the total has plummeted from 9 to 8 in this interleague encounter. Mike Fiers (7-4, 3.59) has a 2.70 ERA in his past three starts while Aaron Nola (7-6, 3.38) has been masterful in his last half dozen outings with 1.70 ERA. Having been blanked 5-0 last night, Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER at home revenging a shutout loss the last two years.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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MLB – (975) MIAMI at (976) TEXAS 8:05 ET FSFL, FSSW
While the previous contest saw the total drop with two hot pitchers, this oddsmakers release is going the opposite direction on this conflict of what is arguably each team’s best starter. The total leapt from 10 to 10.5 with Jose Urena (8-4, 3.78) taking the ball for Miami and Yu Darvish (6-8, 3.38) toeing the rubber for Texas. However, digging deeper we find Darvish has a 4.27 ERA in his last seven starts and Urena has a 5.71 ERA in July. Both are very capable of pitching better immediately and Darvish is 11-0 UNDER against a team with a losing record this season.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (977) CHIC. CUBS at (978) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:08 ET ESPN
The Cross-Town series moves from the North Side to the South Side of Chicago. Though we could discuss the biggest line move of the day is the Cubs are up 35 cents to -230, those have been numbers we have avoided because of how high they are and will instead examine the total rising from 9.5 to 10. One aspect is easy to understand with James Shields (2-2, 5.79) being ripped for a gi-normous 9.60 ERA in his three previous starts. While Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.11) has been throwing much better, he’s allowed 16 home runs, with three coming in his last trio of outings. With Arrieta 10-2 OVER after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings since last year (The Cubs scoring 7.2 RPG has something to do with it), I will follow the number.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 145-161-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 98-82-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 234-220-11 ATS