It is the final week of July and we are ready to fly with baseball line moves all over the place. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (185-138), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (909) PITTSBURGH at (910) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET CSBA (side and total)
For those unaware, before and after Madison Bumgarner’s (0-4, 3.57 ERA) shoulder injury, his velocity has been down a few ticks and in his two starts this month, he’s been tagged for four home runs. With this, San Francisco has fallen from a -130 favorite to -115 or less and the total has been upped from 7 to 7.5. With Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.08) pitching so well for Pittsburgh, one has to be inclined to consider the Pirates, but I will stick with a lower score with the Bucs 15-4 UNDER this month and quite possibly Bumgarner throwing better.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over and 88% on San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean Pittsburgh
MLB – (911) OAKLAND at (912) TORONTO 7:07 ET CSCA, RSN
Most baseball experts assumed Sonny Gray (6-4, 3.66) would be traded by now from Oakland, yet it has not happened. The A’s ace is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a .155 opponents’ batting average over his past five starts and sportsbooks sent Gray and his club out as -110 favorites. Not everyone betting baseball is convinced this is the right number and Toronto and been switched to a -110 home favorite. Not sure about you but Cesar Valdez (0-0, 6.05 ERA) is not doing a lot for me as Blue Jays starter, even if the Gray has 4.85 road ERA and the bullpen’s is at 5.57.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oakland
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MLB – (913) L.A.A. ANGELS at (914) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET FSW, STO
This AL total sinking from 9.5 to 9 has almost nothing to do with Angels starting pitcher Jesse Chavez (5-10, 4.88) and almost everything to do with Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger (5-3, 2.73) and the Indians pensters. Clevinger came up from Triple-A when Cory Kluber was injured in May and has been so effective he’s now a permanent part of the rotation and in his last half dozen outings, opposing teams are batting .196 against him, striking out 9.5 times per nine innings. With the Halos averaging only 3.9 RPG on the road and the Tribe 11-0 UNDER having won four of their last five contests, the new total should be good.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (919) BOSTON at (920) SEATTLE 10:10 ET NESN, RTNW
Drew Pomeranz (10-4, 3.51) is throwing like the pitcher Boston expected him to be coming over from San Diego and he and Red Sox were made -110 faves. Those betting baseball are less convinced and have flipped Felix Hernandez (5-4, 3.88) and Seattle to -115 choice. Hernandez has an ERA of 1.00 in his past three starts, but Pomeranz is 9-2 as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last two seasons. (Team’s Record) Personally, I like the Under 8.5 and will just have a very slight lean with the BoSox.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Boston
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 144-160-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 95-82-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 231-218-11 ATS