Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for July 20th


With a smaller MLB schedule and nearly half of the games played during the day, we found three contests for line moves tonight and come right back with another CFL matchup. We were going to drop in a WNBA encounter in, but the line movement had to do with an injury, not bettors really liking one side.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (181-133), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (957) ATLANTA at (958) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET  FSSE, SNLA

With Brandon McCarthy (6-3, 3.38 ERA) scuffling a bit of late and Los Angeles Dodgers offense averaging 5.4 RPG at home, the total in this contest has jumped from 8 to 8.5. The Dodgers are playing other-worldly baseball, winning 11 in row to build a 31-4 record of late. I actually prefer the original total since McCarthy has 2.88 ERA at Dodger Stadium in 2017 and Atlanta was just stymied by Cubs pitching, scoring six times in being swept in three-game series.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

MLB – (963) TEXAS at (964) BALTIMORE  7:05 ET  FSSW, MASN		Baltimore has drilled Texas like it’s an oil well in taking the first three games of the series by a combined 25-4 tally. Those betting baseball are more on board with how the teams are presently playing than with on what looks like a starting pitching mismatch. The Rangers opened as -115 favorites behind Cole Hamels (4-0. 3.05), who has not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, but they have been flipped to +102 underdogs and will see Wade Miley (4-8, 5.40) take the ball. Hamels is still a legitimate stopper and if Texas is going to break out of its slump, Miley should be the perfect pitcher to do so against.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Baltimore

Doug’s VPID TakeTexas wins

MLB – (967) N.Y. YANKEES at (968) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  YES, RTNW

A 5-1 road trip has propelled Seattle into second place in the AL West and right back into the thick of the wild card race. Now back home where the Mariners are a respectable 27-22, they are a somewhat surprising growing home underdog from +102 to +120 to the New York Yankees. While we agree Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) no longer deserves the title as “King Felix”, he’s not exactly Jason Hammel-bad either. While I like Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40) as a starter, the Yankees are 9-18 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Seattle

CFL – (353) EDMONTON at (354) HAMILTON  7:30 ET  ESPN3

Tonight we have another CFL total that is crumbling apart, down two digits to 52.5. Neither offense does much to get excited about with Edmonton 6th in scoring (25.3 PPG) and Hamilton 8th at 20.3 PPG. The Tiger-Cats defense is the worst in the league in surrendering 36.7 PPG, while the Eskimos in 3rd in points allowed at 22.3 PPG. Just not sure if Edmonton has the tools to take advantage of Hamilton’s defense on the road and I will call for the Ti-Cats to build on recent 15-6 UNDER record at home.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 141-158-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 93-80-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 227-216-11 ATS


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