Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 19th


Not a whole lot happening in line moves for the NBA and NHL, thus, our main focus will be in college basketball, with three of the four games we will talk about coming from that area. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (703) DALLAS at (704) MIAMI 7:35 ET  FSSW, SUN

With Dallas on a three-game winning streak, SU and ATS, and Miami off their most impressive win of the season over Houston, the total on this clash is up from 195.5 to 198. I concur, the original total did seem a little low, with this likely closer to what the score could be. However, two elements strike me, one, the Mavs are 17-6 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog and the Heat are 15-4 UNDER in home games off a home win.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CBB – (715) MARYLAND at (716) IOWA 7:05 ET ESPN		Maryland might be tied for first place in the Big Ten, but it appears there is sharp money going against them in Iowa City this evening. This confrontation opened as a Push and earlier today Iowa was shoved to 2.5-point favorites. The Hawkeyes started the season off kilter, but have been in much better form in winning eight of 11 (6-3-2 ATS) since Dec. 5th, which includes a seven-game winning streak at home (5-1-1 ATS). With the line move, if you are betting basketball, one cannot help but be impressed that the Terps 6-0 as underdogs and 6-0 and 5-1 ATS away from the land of crab cakes.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Maryland

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Maryland


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CBB – (717) RICHMOND at (718) DAYTON 7:00 ET  ESPNU 

Dayton for decades has enjoyed one of the best home court advantages and this year looks no different, with the Flyers 8-1 and 5-2 ATS at UD Arena. This has helped push Dayton from -10 to -12.5 over Richmond in A-10 action. While the Flyers are a stellar 8-2 ATS after playing as a favorite, the Spiders are in first place in the conference at 5-0 and 4-1, with a trio of A-10 wins on the road as underdogs. Dayton is expected to win and is 11-1 in recent contests at home over Richmond, yet they are only 6-5 ATS versus the Spiders.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Richmond

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Richmond


Though Sacramento State is only 5-11 (4-9 ATS) on the season, they just completed a 2-1 and 3-0 ATS Big Sky road trip and those betting basketball and sent the Hornets from +1.5 to -2.5 over Montana State. The Bobcats are not much better than Sacramento State at 7-12 and they have yet to win a road game in seven tries (5-2 ATS). When looking for the spread winner, one cannot ignore the home team is 2-10 ATS after a win by 10 points or more and Montana State averages five more made three-pointers per game.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Sacramento State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Montana State


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 18-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 8-11 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 25-26 ATS


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