Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 29th


Because of time constraints, we can tell you about the main line moves in bowls action today, which saw the Birmingham bowl total slide from 63 to 60.5. Otherwise, we have line moves in the NBA and college basketball, which will become the norm soon. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (443-350 of late and now on 51-30 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (501) MIAMI at (502) CHARLOTTE 7:05 ET  SUN, FSS		Everyone betting NBA basketball realizes Goran Dragic is a nice player and he has been upgraded from ‘Questionable’ to ‘Probable’ tonight, but his value to Miami and a higher scoring game is not entirely why the total has jumped from 199 to 205. If that were even close to true, the Heat would have lowered as an underdog and that has not happened. Instead, it has more to do with Charlotte’s offense which has average 113 PPG in their last five outings. This just seems like too big a leap, with these two on a 6-0 UNDER run and the past seven contests in Carolina all UNDER’s.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (509) TORONTO at (510) PHOENIX 9:05 ET TSN2, FSAZ

With Toronto the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 111.4 PPG and Phoenix next to last in scoring defense at 114.3 PPG, the total has blown up from 219.5 to 224.5. The Suns defense would make any matador proud, as they have allowed opposing teams to make 50% of more of their shots in four consecutive games. Toronto should take advantage of this and will be ready having connected on less than 40 percent of attempts in back-to-back games. This is a step line move, but we will support the general concept, with the two clubs a combined 44-19 OVER this year.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CBB – (523) FLORIDA at (524) ARKANSAS 9:00 ET SECN

SEC opener for both squads and Arkansas has been flipped from a one-point favorite to one-point home underdog against Florida. The concern among those betting college basketball about the Gators was shooting accuracy, but they have shot better than 50 percent in two straight tilts and might have confidence going. Arkansas is always a handful at Bud Walton Arena, but has only been average when it comes to covering spreads of late and is only 4-4 ATS this season at home. We will make the call with the Hogs, who are 6-0 ATS in their building vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 12+ points a game the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Florida

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arkansas


Neither of these Missouri Valley teams has played very well as they commence with conference slate. Southern Illinois shoots the ball pretty well at 46.7%, but gives most of it back in allowing opponents to connect on 45.5%. Bradley does not make a lot of shots, having already been below 40% shooting in five of 13 contests, including the last three. Granted, that was against teams better than the Salukis, nonetheless, the Braves have gone from a Pick to +2. No easy choice, but will lean with SIU who is 6-0 ATS away when the line is +3 to -3.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Southern Illinois

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Southern Illinois


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 315-300-3

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 190-165-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 533-484-5


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