Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 28th


Quite a bit of action in all four bowl games today as we look for all the line moves. In addition, we also have the biggest line movement in the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (440-347 of late and now on 48-27 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

BOWLS – Pinstripe(243) NORTHWESTERN vs. (244) PITTSBURGH 2:00 ET  ESPN		With Pittsburgh 11-1 OVER this season, rather stunning to see the total in this bowl game fall from 68 to 64.5 . Granted, Northwestern was 8-4 UNDER this season and some might expect them to control the pace. However, three of the Wildcats OVER’s came on the road with better offensive and that is quite likely to continue versus Panthers 127th rated pass defense. UpdateAfter reaching a low point of 63 yesterday afternoon, this total has climbed back to 64. Still heavy action on the Over in spite of what numbers say.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

BOWLS – Russell Athletic (245) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (246) MIAMI-FL 5:30 ET ESPN (side and total)

Miami has crept up from -1.5 to -3 over West Virginia as enough bettors like how they finished the season at 4-0 SU and ATS. In fact, the SU winner of Hurricanes game this season is 12-0 ATS. However, the Canes are on 0-6 ATS run as bowlers. The total has also gone up two points to 58.5. Yet we found the Mountaineers are 12-4 UNDER in away games if they have failed to cover two of last three outings.

Betting Trend – 53% backing West Virginia and 71% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Miami and Under

BOWLS –  Foster Farms (247) INDIANA vs. (248) UTAH 8:30 ET FOX

In spite of all the turmoil in the Indiana football program, either football bettors believe the transition will be smoother than what many outsiders actually think or Utah losing three of last four makes them unfit as 8-point favorite and they have been shaved to -6. Still hate the thought of going against the Utes who have won 11 of 13 bowl games (9-4 ATS). UpdateA further decline on Utah to -5.5 has happened at about 80% of the sportsbooks checked. Not buying it.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Utah

Doug’s VPID Take – Utah covers

BOWLS – Texas (249) KANSAS STATE vs. (263) TEXAS A&M 9:00 ET ESPN

In spite of Trevor Knight expected to return as quarterback for Texas A&M, the total has sunk from 58 to 56. Kansas State’s potent running game should run at will on Aggies defense that gives up 190 yards rushing and Knight is presumed to find plenty of open receivers against Wildcats secondary that allows 270 yards passing. Also, when a team like K-State who averages 4.8 or yards per carry, goes against a defense that allows 3.5 to 4.3 YPC after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games, they are 35-11 OVER.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NBA – (705) MILWAUKEE at (706) DETROIT 7:35 ET  FSWI, FSDT

A divisional battle finds a rising total, going from 197.5 to 200.5 or 201, depending on the sportsbook. Milwaukee lost at Washington on Monday and is 11-3 OVER after one or more setbacks this season. Nonetheless, six of the past nine meetings have resulted in lower scoring contests and Detroit is 11-1 UNDER as a home favorite this season. Somebody is seeing something we do not.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 313-297-3

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 190-164-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 533-484-5


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