Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Aug. 16-17


Let’s get to it on a very busy Wednesday! With business to attend to tomorrow, I will include the present line moves for the NFL on Thursday in today’s article. along with baseball this evening. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (205-172) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

MLB – (909) ATLANTA at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET  FSSO (side and total)

Cannot say I am one bit surprised the total went from 11.5 to 11, with Mike Foltynewicz (10-7, 4.29 ERA) going against Jon Gray (4-2, 4.92). Both 25-year olds are good pitchers and their ERA’s are not indicative of their actual ability. However, Colorado has really sprung up as a favorite from starting position of -155; they have been launched to -180. Though Atlanta won last night 4-3, that was their first victory in 10 tries at Coors Field.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Colorado

Doug’s VPID – Colorado wins and Under

MLB – (917) DETROIT at (918) TEXAS  8:05 ET FSD, FSSW		The Texas bats are heating up like the temperatures and humidity in Dallas and the total has climbed from 10.5 to 11 in this AL affair. Scratch the Dallas Keuchel gem on Sunday and in the Rangers six other contests played recently, they are averaging 6.5 RPG. It would appear Texas would not have problem knocking around Detroit’s Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 6.69). Cole Hamels (7-1, 3.31) will most likely be less generous, seeing he has not given up an earned run in 18 innings, but he is still 23-10 OVER vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or lower since 2015.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (925) ST. LOUIS at (926) BOSTON  7:10 ET  FSMW, NESN

Lance Lynn (10-6, 3.12) has put together a strong season for St. Louis, but many feel that will not be good enough versus a blistering Boston bunch that has won 11 of 13. The Cardinals have flown from +125 to +140 at Fenway. While Lynn would seem to give the Redbirds a real chance for a win, the Red Sox are a sensational 24-5 at home in inter-league games the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Boston

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Boston


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NFLX – Thursday – (401) BALTIMORE at (402) MIAMI  7:00 ET

Both of these AFC offenses did enough with their backup quarterbacks playing to win and cover last week. Both teams reached 23 points, however, those betting football are not sure that happens again and dropped the total from 39.5 to 38. Baltimore’s team defense was in top form against Washington, holding them to 138 total yards and they are 9-1 UNDER after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in last game.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

NFLX – Thursday – (405) TAMPA BAY at (406) JACKSONVILLE  8:00 ET  ESPN

This could be a rather intriguing contest, as these teams scrimmaged on Tuesday and several skirmishes broke out. The wagering action is following Tampa Bay, who has gone from +2.5 to a Pick. This likely follows the path of preseason games where one team underperforms, the Buccaneers in this case (23-13 loser at Cincinnati), while the other club overachieves, like Jacksonville last week in 31-24 upset at New England where the offense piled up 447 total yards. This also fits a very solid preseason system for Tampa Bay, as road teams having scored 14 points or less in last game, facing opponent who scored 30 points or more, are 25-8 ATS.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Tampa Bay

Doug’s VPID TakeTampa Bay covers


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 158-180-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 111-89-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 261-235-13 ATS


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