Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Aug. 15th


It is back to baseball for a couple days on line moves and we are more than alright with that. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (205-168) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Wednesday.


As good as Madison Bumgarner (2-5 with a 2.71 ERA) is, even he cannot save this dumpster fire he is a part of in San Francisco, with the Giants 2-8 in Mad Bum’s starts and 0-5 on the road. Little wonder San Fran slipped from a -135 favorite to -110 or less. Though Dan Straily (7-8, 3.74) does not bring seemingly a lot to the party, he frequently places his team in a position to win and he is 13-4 versus a NL team with an slugging percentage .390 or worse in the second half of the season the last two years. (Team’s Record)

Betting Trend – 53% backing Miami

Doug’s VPID – Lean Miami

MLB – (961) TAMPA BAY at (962) TORONTO  7:07 ET SUN, RSN (side and total)	Thoroughly puzzled by these line moves in this AL East encounter. Toronto has crumbled from a -140 fave to -125 and the total has risen from 9 to 9.5. The latter is where I will start. Tampa Bay has scored 12 runs in 10 games and takes on a suddenly scalding Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85) who has an ERA under 2.00 in his last four starts. I totally understand Estrada has an ERA over 10 in three home starts against the Rays in 2017. Swing and miss Tampa Bay is not sending out a young David Price in Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69) and the Rays are 4-16 after scoring four runs or less in five straight contests.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Toronto, 73% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeToronto wins and Under


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MLB – (969) BALTIMORE at (970) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  MASN2, RTNW

Given the circumstances, one the most unusual lowering of totals I have seen in awhile. Seattle is starting 31-year old Andrew Albers, who they acquired from Atlanta after James Paxton went on 10-day DL. Albers was 12-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 26 games (17 starts) in the International League this season and has never quite stuck in the majors. He will face Wade Miley (6-9, 5.19) for the Orioles, who after being among the worst starters in baseball has 2.12 ERA in his last three outings. I have no idea what to think about this game other than my numbers have it 10.6 runs.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeThe absolute slightest of leans on the Over

MLB – (979) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (970) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET  WGN, SNLA

With a money line of -360 on Los Angeles, it is not exactly like you would be doing anything more than fishing for a money line or run line play. Instead, our attention is drawn to the total which is up from 8 to 8.5. The Dodgers, if not bored, liked they seemed over the weekend against San Diego, should bash around Miguel Gonzalez (6-10, 4.85) and a parade of Chicago bullpen pitchers, who mostly have more innings because of all the trades the White Sox made. Alex Wood starts for L.A. and he is 7-0 OVER vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game, with average total score 11.6 runs.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 156-177-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 111-89-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 258-233-13 ATS


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