We could have used the Cubs or Atlanta for line moves, but the other two MLB games we choose had better stories. Plus we have the line moves for tonight in the NBA Playoffs. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (86-47 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (703) MEMPHIS at (704) SAN ANTONIO 9:00 ET NBA-TV
Realistically, nobody was shocked Memphis beat San Antonio at home once, but twice to tie the series, that was not expected. Though the Spurs won 60+ games, in looking at this series to date, one has to wonder if this Gregg Popovich’s squad is built for the long term instead of playoff series. The offense has lacked fluidity, but that is not stopping basketball bettors from taking the home team from -9 to -10. The Grizzles have certainly gained confidence, yet home favorites of 10 or more points who score 102 or more PPG, against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more in two straight contests, are 38-13 ATS.
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Antonio
NBA – (705) OKLAHOMA CITY at (706) HOUSTON 9:00 ET TNT
Since Game 1, the next three contests in this series have been determined by 10 total points. With this Houston has sunk from -8 to -7 against Oklahoma City. While I am the first to recognize the Rockets are 6-14 ATS in home games playing against a team with a winning record this season, I believe Houston ups their game at home and breaks open a close contest in the fourth quarter to wins by 10. (Note: I would wait to see if you can even find a lower number.)
Betting Trend – 52% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
MLB – (969) N.Y. YANKEES at (970) BOSTON 7:10 ET YES, NESN
Both these rivals are chasing Baltimore in the AL East and will commence with their annual battles. The series opener features a fascinating pitching matchup of Luis Severino (1-1, 4.05 ERA) vs. reigning Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello (1-2, 5.33). Severino is trying to prove he can handle the starting work load and has all the pitches to do so, he just has to trust himself. Porcello is an above average starter now pitching with expectations like in 2015 and has not handled it well thus far. The Red Sox have tumbled from -135 to -115 Fenway favorites and this has become too good a price to pass up with Porcello and the BoSox 16-2 when he pitches at home since last season.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins
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MLB – (975) KANSAS CITY at (976) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSKC, CSN-C (side and total)
One would not expect two teams scoring a combined 6.2 runs a game to have a rising total, yet this AL Central clash has climbed from 8 to 8.5. Kansas City has not tallied more than three runs since April 14th (9 games), yet somebody is expecting them to bust loose against Chicago’s Dylan Covey (7.84). The Royals Danny Duffy (2-0, 1.32) is off to a good start and has held the White Sox to 3.27 ERA in 14 starts. With K.C.’s dormant offense, they have been dropped from -135 to -115 or less. Look for Royals to end losing streak and do so in lower scoring affair.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Kansas City and 69% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins and Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 94-108-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 45-50-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 133-156-5 ATS