Auburn (5-7 O/U) vs. Purdue (6-5-1 O/U)
Friday, Dec. 28, 1:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Free NCAAF Pick: Over
With the total at 55 points, if you are making college football picks that sounds like it should be favoring Purdue. Auburn this season has scored just 28.2 PPG (71st) and allowed 19.6 (18th), which is far below what the oddsmakers have listed. With Purdue having more ways to score at 31.9 PPG (44th) and weaker on defense at 27.2 PPG (T-67th), one might be inclined to taking the points with the Boilermakers with this total.
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Yet, what are the oddsmakers really saying, do they believe the Tigers offense will have more than usual success against Purdue’s defense? That could be the case. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham of Auburn did not have a banner year with only 13 TD’s passes. The offensive line was poor in protection and Stidham has not shown to be very elusive in the pocket, sacked 23 times. But Purdue has been lit up on pass defense for 276.9 YPG, which was 124th this season. This should give Auburn chances to toss the ball down the field and be successful.
Boiler coach Jeff Brohm will have a unique game plan like he usually does and will use misdirection to have the Tigers speed to work against them and be out of position. Brohm’s teams are 14-3 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in three straight games and 13-2 OVER when the line is +3 to -3, with the average total score just over 71 points. Take the OVER.