College Football Line Moves and Free Picks (Oct.9-10)


Here are the latest line moves on previous games from earlier in the week, with updated information on all of them. Plus, we have new additions that changed as the week moved ahead and other college football line moves tidbits all bettors should know. Please return for our NFL edition on Sunday which includes free picks.

CFB –  Friday (307) SOUTHERN MISS at (308) MARSHALL 7:00 ET CBSSN  *New*

Marshall might be 4-1, but bettors fully comprehend this is not the same Thundering Herd team of the past couple years. Southern Miss is beginning to turn their program around and is 3-2 and a perfect 5-0 ATS. These factors have led to a sharp money surge to the Golden Eagles to go from +6.5 to +3. What makes this move really thought provoking is the total has also been lowered from 60 to 56, what does not make complete sense as Marshall has the better defense (19 vs. 28 PPG allowed), which would seem to favor them in lowering scoring contests. Look at the betting trends to understand wise guy action.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Marshall and 75% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Marshall covers and Lean Over

CFB –  Friday (309) N.C. STATE at (310) VIRGINIA TECH 8:00 ET  ESPN

With Virginia Tech once again overrated and with two losses at home, the Hokies have tumbled from -3 to a Pick. Not sure N.C. State is really better after unsightly loss at home to Louisville, but Lane Stadium edge is no longer the same with Beamer’s bunch 7-17 ATS since 2011. Update – Not unexpectedly, the Virginia Tech money came as bettors cannot help themselves. The other big change is the total, falling off the proverbial table from 53 to 46.5. N.C. State is 17-6 UNDER off an AAC setback and the Hokies are 7-0 UNDER in last seven October assignments.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Virginia Tech and 69% on the Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean N.C. State and Under

CFB – (327) MARYLAND at (328) OHIO STATE  12:00 ET  BTN

With Ohio State not having covered a big spread in a month, you would think bettors would be wary. I guess it ends up saying more about how bad they truly believe Maryland is in taking the Buckeyes from -29.5 to -33. If Ohio State does not commit so many turnovers they should cover, but can you count on that? Update – Ohio State has held up at this price all week, but I would not be surprised to see the Buckeyes slip a half point or more by kickoff.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Ohio State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ohio State


Somebody is paying attention to Appalachian State as for a second straight week they make this list. This time they are a falling favorite from -19.5 to -16. This does not seem like anything more than an overreaction to the Mountaineers not covering big spread versus Wyoming last week. Despite the team, this certainly has a public betting feel to it. Update – By Wednesday, the visitor was down to -15.5, however, almost all Vegas books were back to -16 on App. State.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Appalachian State

Doug’s VPID Take – Appalachian State covers

CFB – (339) VIRGINIA at (340) PITTSBURGH  12:30 ET  W-ESPN

A bit surprised to see Pittsburgh dropping from -10 to -7.5. I will agree the Panthers at the oddsmakers starting price is possibly a little high, but other than Notre Dame game, what has Virginia shown? Expect the number to go back up later in the week thanks to Pitt’s No.4 nationally ranked defense. Update – As the week went forward, so did the line in this ACC affair and Pitts was restored to -10. In addition, the total went south from 52 to 46, with neither offense that strong against better competition. With this type of movement in this range, the UNDER is 18-6 the past few years.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Pittsburgh and 70% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Pittsburgh and Overio

CFB – (345) WYOMING at (346) AIR FORCE  10:15 ET  ESPN2

Wyoming is 0-5, but has covered both road games as chalky underdogs. No matter according to those visiting betting outlets already, moving the Cowboys a gigantic six points to +24.5. This does appear puzzling in spite of how bad Wyoming actually is since the Air Force off whipping to Navy, is 2-12 ATS after a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. Update – A one point buyback on Wyoming to +23.5, but nowhere close to beginning starting point.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Wyoming

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wyoming


www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comBowling Green has shown the capacity to score and surrender at ton of points, averaging 36.5 and giving up 36. The two best offenses Massachusetts has played, they allowed 110 total points and the Falcons fit this mode. Though the Minutemen are not scoring at last year’s pace, they should here and the total flew from 71 to 76. Update – Like Pinocchio’s nose, the total has kept on growing and is either at 79 or 79.5 depending on the sportsbook. Despite the rising number, the betting trend has been the other way since Tuesday.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CFB – (385) LOUISIANA TECH at (386) UTSA 7:00 ET  ASN

An under the radar team this season has been UTSA, who in spite of heavy graduation losses is 3-2 ATS against a very challenging slate of teams. Those paying attention know the Roadrunners have the ability to be competitive in any contest and they fell from +13 to +10 home underdogs against Louisiana Tech. Update – Another buyback with the Bulldogs now at -12 and don’t be surprised by game time if this is not at original starting point. Understand, UTSA is 4-17 ATS at home playing against a team with a winning record.  io

Betting Trend – 74% backing Louisiana Tech

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisiana Tech

CFB – (401) MICHIGAN STATE at (402) RUTGERS  8:00 ET  BTN  *New*

If this does not tell you bettors are have lost respect for Michigan State, I don’t know what does. The unbeaten Spartans are 5-0, yet have failed to cover a single spread and one of my sets of rankings has them at 22nd, not third or fourth in the country. Despite the Rutgers program adrift, Michigan State has slipped three points to -13.5 road favorites. Nonetheless, with the line moving past key number of 14 and the Spartans leaving East Lansing for the first time in over a month, maybe this will motivate them, plus they are 8-1 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins the last two seasons.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Michigan State

Doug’s VPID Take – Michigan State covers

Other CFB Betting News – Minnesota has gone from a Pick to -3 at Purdue, but how do you feel backing a road team averaging 15.4 PPG?…..Bettors not convinced Central Michigan can engineer consecutive MAC upsets and moved them from +3.5 to +7 at Western Michigan…..Heavily favored Mississippi and Baylor have been increased five and six points respectively…..San Jose State and Hawai’i have both been flipped from underdogs to favorites, but only 24% of bets placed are on the Rainbow Warriors…..Wisconsin/Nebraska total is up three points to 48.5, which says the Badgers offense will be better or the Cornhuskers defense worse…..The Red River Rivalry total has declined from 63 to 59.5 as others besides Kirk Herbstreit are questioning if Texas will have heart…..After scoring 45 against Central Florida, Tulane is not being thought of having anywhere near as much success against tough Temple defense, with the total tumbling from 51 to 46.


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