We have added the biggest line moves in college football since Tuesday and look back at what changes have occurred on contests we tracked earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (248-195 of late and recent 32-21 mark), when posted, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.
CFB –(305) TCU at (306) SMU 8:00 ET ESPN
With SMU having covered against Baylor and TCU 0-3 ATS to this point of the season, football bettors were not comfortable with the Horned Frogs at -23 and lowered them to -21. The Mustangs defense has forced 10 turnovers, which is a positive development, but the seven they have committed is not. On last aspect, the Ponies have covered three in a row at home over TCU. Update – A modest buyback by bettors to 21.5 on TCU. Early in the week SMU was over 60 percent of bets placed, as you can now that has been switched.
Betting Trend – 62% backing TCU
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean SMU
CFB – (321) SYRACUSE at (322) CONNECTICUT 1:00 ET CBSSN
Though Connecticut has a winning record, they have yet to beat the spread this season largely because the offense is averaging a mere 20.3 PPG. And it is not like the Huskies are facing SEC defenses each week, which has in part been why they UConn has crumbled as favorites from -6.5 to -3.5. However, the ‘Cuse is 8-20 as road underdogs of seven or less. Update – Connecticut has continued to lack support and is close to evenly divided at either -2.5 or -3. The Huskies now offer value unless you think the Orange will win outright.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Syracuse
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Connecticut.
CFB – (343) CHARLOTTE at (344) TEMPLE 12:00 ET W-ESPN
Not sure how or why somebody would bet enough to force the sportsbooks to move this line 2.5 points, yet that is what happened with Temple down from -29.5 to -27. Granted, the Owls being this large a favorite against anyone is unsettling. Look for turnovers to be the deciding factor as to what team beats the number. Update – A couple 27.5 numbers have popped up at different sportsbooks, but by and large the number has been quiet.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Charlotte
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Charlotte
CFB –(351) LOUISVILLE at (352) MARSHALL 8:00 ET CBSSN *New*
Right now, people cannot get enough of Louisville and who could blame them the way they have played the first three contests. The Cardinals have been jettisoned from -23.5 to -27 at Marshall, who suffered a rare home loss to Akron, yea, the Zips by 27. While it seems silly to bet against the ‘Ville these days, you at least have to consider the Thundering Herd who are 8-0-1 ATS as home underdogs of six points or more.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Marshall
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Marshall
CFB –(357) NEW MEXICO STATE at (358) TROY 7:00 ET W-ESPN
Troy had rather impressive upset at Southern Miss last Saturday and that was on the heels of giving Clemson all they wanted. This has influenced those betting football to lift the Trojans from -17.5 to -21. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country but they can score points which gives the Aggies shot in a flat spot for Troy. Update – Troy has been walked back to -20, but the latest news is the total has slumped from 68 to 65. With New Mexico State a solid offensive club and its undersized defense extremely vulnerable, cannot back that move.
Betting Trend – 50-50 and 78% in Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Troy, Play Over
CFB –(371) WASHINGTON at (372) ARIZONA 10:30 ET PAC-12N *New*
Though Washington has lost four in a row at Tucson, with Arizona banged up at offensive skill positions, the money is flowing toward the Huskies, up from -10 to -14. Washington by all appearances looks like a Pac-12 team that could win the conference, but like those still moving up, you have to remove certain ghosts from the past like this one. I don’t care for this adjusted number, but with the Wildcats injuries and starting two D-linemen weighing around 250 pounds, I can see Washington wearing them down.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
CFB – (375) MIAMI-O at (376) CINCINNATI 3:30 ET ESPNN
Cincinnati gave it their best shot against Houston and it was not enough and the Bearcats have just as important a contest at home next week versus South Florida. This leaves Cincy in massive doughnut spot against in-state rival Miami-O, who slid from +21 to +17.5. This outcome is totally dependent on Cincinnati’s attitude and the Redhawks are 3-0 ATS of late. Update – Rather stationary all week at 17.5 and do not expect that to change by game time. However, Miami has fallen 20 percent on wagers placed.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Miami-O
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami-O
CFB – (381) SOUTH CAROLINA at (382) KENTUCKY 8:00 ET SECN
With South Carolina’s inability to score (15.7 PPG), the Gamecocks have been flipped from -2 to +1.5 at Kentucky. The Wildcats defense has been awful in allowing 43.7 PPG and regular starting QB Drew Barker is listed as ‘doubtful’. Yet again we have contest that could go either way, but will give the nod to Kentucky because they can at least score points. Update – Right now around 75 percent of the sportsbooks are up to -2.5 on Kentucky. As stated, at least the Wildcats know where the end zone is.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Kentucky covers
CFB –(397) AIR FORCE at (398) UTAH STATE 10:15 ET ESPNU *New*
The biggest totals move of the week has been this MWC matchup, which has seen the oddmakers release of 57 crumble all the way to 52.5. On the surface, cannot find any reasons, including the weather, which would cause such a collapse. However, at this figure, I can see value on going the other way with the Air Force 10-1 OVER in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – (405) TULSA at (406) FRESNO STATE 4:30 ET MWC-V
It was not that many years ago Fresno State was a very stable and good football program, not anymore. Now, even at home the Bulldogs conjure up little respect and they have blown up as home underdogs from +12 to +14.5 against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have a good balanced attack and with Fresno State lost on defense, Tulsa will have a chance to cover. Update – Tulsa has been lowered to an even two-touchdown favorite and wagering masses love the Golden Hurricane.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Tulsa
Doug’s VPID Take – Tulsa covers
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (6-9 ATS record) – UNLV, Memphis, Air Force, Iowa and Central Florida
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (4-11 record) – ECU/VT OVER, Colo./Oregon OVER, Stan./UCLA OVER, Neb./Northw. UNDER and Flor./Tenn. UNDER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 195-174-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 144-115-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 347-307-3