Another big football weekend is at hand and we have the latest line moves that have occurred over the past several days. Just so you know, we will not discuss all the totals that have fallen because of Hurricane Matthew, that is explains itself. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (275-215 of late and recent 61-41 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL Week 5.
CFB – (323) BYU at (324) MICHIGAN STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
With Michigan State having lost two straight, those betting football are counting on the Spartans to rebound and lifted them from -4 to -6. While Michigan State certainly wants to win, not sure that BYU is going to grab their attention and seeing the Cougars have played nothing but close games all season, I will grab these points. Update – With a couple of exceptions, Michigan State is not at -5.5. Funny to see bet percentage is still the same as Tuesday.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Michigan State
Doug’s VPID Take – BYU covers
CFB – (325) GEORGIA TECH at (326) PITTSBURGH 12:30 ET (side and total) *New* ACCN
Pittsburgh has fallen two points to -6 and to a degree that is understandable because their defense is permitting 31 PPG. Granted, that is mostly via the pass, not a specialty of Georgia Tech’s. What is less clear why the total would sink from 56 to 50.5. The Yellow Jackets strength on defense is stopping the run and it is what the Panthers are best at. It just does not seem the side and total movements align in any manner.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Georgia Tech and 73% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Pittsburgh and Over
CFB – (327) MARYLAND at (328) PENN STATE 12:00 ET BTN
What is the state of Penn State football when playing at home, they go from a mere two-point favorite to +1 against Maryland? Granted, the Terrapins are 4-0, but they have not played USC’s schedule. The Terps do have the nation’s No. 7 run offense at 300 YPG and Penn State is allowing 217 PPG. The Nittany Lions are 4-13 ATS in Big Ten action lately. Update – Maryland has continued to climb the ladder to -2.5. Are they ready to win as favorites on the Big Ten road?
Betting Trend – 75% backing Maryland
Doug’s VPID Take – Penn State covers
CFB – (329) IOWA STATE at (348) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET ESPNU *New*
Cannot say I am surprised the total climbed from 63.5 to 67. We know Oklahoma State will score and they have a shaky defense this season. However, Iowa State is coming around as more offensive group under first-year coach Matt Campbell and the Cyclones should score their share of points to make this OVER play. The Cowboys are 11-2 OVER at home after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (339) TEXAS TECH at (340) KANSAS STATE 7:00 ET ESPNU
With QB Patrick Mahomes status unclear because of injury, the last thing one might expect is Texas Tech would be shrinking road underdog. Yet the Red Raiders are Kansas State. Having watched the Wildcats twice, I believe the concern is K-State keeping up offensively, because they struggle to keep offensive momentum and have fallen two points to -7. Update – Once Mahomes was officially expected to be out, Kansas State started rising like bread to -8 and we have seen a few -9’s which is what is expected by game time.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Kansas State
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Kansas State
CFB –(343) PURDUE at (344) ILLINOIS 3:30 ET BTN
What an indictment on Purdue football that they have gone from -7.5 to -10 at Illinois. The Fighting Illini are again rebuilding with Lovie Smith as coach, yet the Boilermakers are obviously going nowhere with Darrell Hazell as coach, bringing back 16 starters after 50-7 mauling by Maryland. Just keep in mind the visitor has four straight outright in Big Ten action. Update – Illinois went to -10.5 on Wednesday, where they have remained. Just having a hard time seeing the Illini covering that large a number in a conference game.
Betting Trend – 50-50 Split
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Purdue
CFB – (347) VIRGINIA TECH at (348) NORTH CAROLINA 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New*
North Carolina has been drifting downward all week, starting at -3.5 and down to -1.5. The general consensus is the Tar Heels are coming off two last second victories and the emotional tank might be near empty, even with being an important ACC divisional affair. The logic of the argument makes sense, it is just a matter Virginia Tech matching points. The Hokies are 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 2014.
Betting Trend – 74% backing North Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean North Carolina
CFB – (349) NOTRE DAME at (350) N.C. STATE 12:00 ET ABC *New*
Oddsmakers opened Notre Dame as one-point road favorite, but bettors have seen enough the Fighting Irish pass defense and have flipped them to +3 at N.C. State. The Wolfpack are averaging 296 yards through the air and should have a field day. N.C. State will get their yards and score points, but the Notre Dame offense is even better with more weapons. In Chip Kelly’s career, his team’s are 30-15 ATS as underdogs and the Irish have gotten better in October, which explains 9-2 ATS mark on the road this month. Betting trend suggests sharp money on home team.
Betting Trend – 82% backing N.C. State
Doug’s VPID Take – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (351) BOWLING GREEN at (352) OHIO U. 2:00 ET W-ESPN
Bowling Green’s only victory is 27-26 over FCS North Dakota and they are 0-5 ATS. Even with this the Falcons have flown from +15 to +12 at Ohio U. Bowling Green does have the history, 7-4 SU and 7-1 ATS at Peden Stadium. Nonetheless, this is not typical Falcons team and with all the turnovers they have been committing, the Bobcats have enough offense, especially at home to get this done. Update – The general consensus by the books is 12 or 12.5. Still looks like a Bobcats winner.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Ohio U.
Doug’s VPID Take – Ohio U. covers
CFB – (377) TENNESSEE at (378) TEXAS A&M 3:30 ET CBS
Somebody thinks Tennessee is living on the edge too closely and is about to fall off the cliff. After one improbable comeback after another, the Vols were shifted two points higher to +7. Texas A&M has been 5-0 the last three years, but this team has different feel with veteran QB Trevor Knight at the helm. Does Volunteers magic run out? Update – No changes in this important SEC showdown, but 10 percent betting change now has the Aggies favored.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Texas A&Mio
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas A&M
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (11-14 ATS record) – Ohio U., Houston, California, Akron and Michigan
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (10-15 record) – UCLA/ASU OVER, Auburn/Miss. St. UNDER, Iowa St./Okl. St. OVER, AF/Wyoming UNDER, Ind./Ohio St. OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 220-187-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 149-118-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 374-328-3