It is the Halloween weekend and we have all the key line moves for college football for you to look over and understand. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (312-253 of late and recent 97-79 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here for NFL Sunday.
CFB –Friday– (105) AIR FORCE at (106) FRESNO STATE 10:30 ET ESPN2 *New
Since beating hated rival Navy, the Air Force is 0-3 SU and ATS. On Friday, they take on Fresno State who fired their coach in the midst of another lousy season, yet they are 4-1 ATS in last five games which includes three straight spread winners. Despite this, the Air Force has flown from -12 to -14.5. It should be of interest that teams off three straight covers over three weeks are 14-5 ATS this season.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Air Force
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Fresno State
CFB – (135) TEXAS TECH at (136) TCU 3:30 ET ESPN2 *New
Oddsmakers used to shy away from making enormous line moves but when it comes to Texas Tech or Oregon, anything is possible and they have to adjust. In the defenseless Big 12, this total has climbed five points to 87.5 and it might not be done! The Red Raiders and Horned Frogs can both score and not play defense and the last two games between them went over the century mark so why can’t this one?
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (143) LOUISVILLE at (144) VIRGINIA 12:00 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New
Virginia was a pretty popular play as home underdog the last two weeks, however, there defense has been fully exposed as quite so slow and not real tough and with Lamar Jackson and Louisville in town, the Cavaliers have climbed from +27 to +33.5. This is purely another game of Louisville – want to. If the Cards want to win 56-14, they do, because Virginia will not stop them. But if Bobby Petrino’s squad plays like they did against Duke, than they will 35-17, it’s up to them.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Virginia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisville
CFB – (157) MIAMI-FL at (158) NOTRE DAME 3:30 ET NBC
Though Miami-Fl. is slumping at 0-3 SU & ATS, more than enough people are convinced Notre Dame is much worse and have taken the Hurricanes from +1 to -2.5 at South Bend. The feeling is the Irish defense cannot stop anyone, coach Brian Kelly has lost this group and they lack senior leadership to take charge. However, the switch brings out the Irish as 5-2 ATS as home dogs. Update – The Hurricanes have blown back -1.5, with basically the same amount of wagers placed. Off a bye and all the turmoil, I’ll forecast an Irish uprising.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Miami-FL
Doug’s VPID Take – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (159) BAYLOR at (160) TEXAS 3:30 ET ABC *New
Do not read conference recruiting handbooks, but after the last several years I can only assume there are restrictions on speed, height and weight for defensive players in the Big 12, because this league has almost no defenders. Another prime example is this Texas tussle in which the total is growing almost as fast as ticket prices for World Series games at Wrigley Field, up from 70 to 73.5. Not buying this one, more seeing a game in the 60’s.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (169) NORTHWESTERN at (170) OHIO STATE 3:30 ET ESPN
This was predictable, Ohio State turbo-charged four points to -25.5 being at home and coming off upset at Penn State. This could very well happen if the Buckeyes bring A-game, however, Northwestern is 21-8 ATS as Big Ten road underdog since 2008 and could keep this closer than most would think. Update – With little surprise, Ohio State has marched all the way to -27. Maybe the Buckeyes roll, yet given the Wildcats conference road history, they are worth a look.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Northwestern
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Northwestern
CFB –(177) GEORGIA vs. (178) FLORIDA 3:30 ET CBS
With Florida looking as the stronger squad in this pass the cocktail SEC neutral field clash, the Gators are up two points to -7.5. The concerns are the Georgia offense, which too often plays like a bad Bloody Mary and defense, which ranks 106th in the country in yards per points allowed. The half point hook is a concern. Update – This game has mostly been steady at adjusted price, but a few Vegas books who get heavy foot traffic are up to -8. That’s fine by me, Gators gobble up Georgia.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Georgia
Doug’s VPID Take – Florida covers
CFB – (179) AUBURN at (180) MISSISSIPPI 7:15 ET SECN
The Auburn ground game is now steamrolling opponents at over 300 YPG, which is sensational, when you realize they only had 87 yards against Clemson. With Mississippi surrendering 5.2 YPC, it is not surprising to see Auburn altered from -2 to -4, even at Oxford. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS after a SEC home victory and could roll. Update – Put another half point next to Auburn’s name, now at -4.5. The lone question is how does porous Mississippi run defense slow churning Tigers run game?
Betting Trend – 88% backing Auburn
Doug’s VPID Take – Auburn covers
CFB – (185) RICE at (186) LOUISIANA TECH 7:00 ET
The largest early line move was this C-USA encounter, with Louisiana Tech opening at -23.5 and blown up to -28. Rice is a sickly 3-13 ATS on the road versus teams averaging 450 or more YPG and is 12-25 ATS away if they have a winning record. My concern is how badly do the Bulldogs want to squash the Owls. Update – The latest info has the Bulldogs at -28.5 or -29. The Techsters are on good little run. let’s lean their way in spite of the majority of the bets now with the visitor.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Rice
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisiana Tech
CFB – (197) MICHIGAN at (198) MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 ET ESPN
Spartans fans have to be pensive about this matchup, knowing Michigan could bring the whipping stick and destroy their team with the talent difference and seeking redemption, which you know Jim Harbaugh cares about. The Wolverines have been taken from -20.5 to -23 and that might not be enough. Sparty is 10-22 ATS off a conference loss as a favorite. Update – Michigan is a solid -24.5 point favorite since Wednesday and it hard to find fault with this logic.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Michigan covers
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (17-23 ATS record) – Illinois, Auburn, San Diego State, Western Kentucky and Houston
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (18-22 record) – Baylor/Texas OVER, B.C./N.C. State UNDER, Air Force.Fresno St. OVER, Neb./Wisco. UNDER and T.T./TCU OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 239-225-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 160-127-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 406-371-3