Another college football weekend at hand and we have the latest line moves updates, information and free picks for you. Please be back on Sunday for NFL Week 7 version.
CFB – Friday (311) MEMPHIS at (312) TULSA 8:00 ET ESPN
If you take the combined offense averages of these two AAC teams, you arrive at 79.3 points a game. Next consider these are the 105th (Memphis) and 122nd (Tulsa) ranked defenses in the country and it is easy to comprehend why the total went from 72 to 75. Average Tulsa home game score has been 65.2 points the last three years. Update – The total has kept on going up, not at 76.5. I’m thinking the other way.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (321) BOWLING GREEN at (322) KENT STATE 1:00 ET W-ESPN
Nice road win by Kent State at UMass last week, but football bettors see scoring disparity and wonder. Bowling Green’s prolific passing offense helps them score 43.3 PPG, while the Golden Flashes labor to reach 18 PPG. This has led to the Falcons flying from -12.5 to -14.5. Bowling Green is 9-0 ATS after a 21 or more point win. Update – A small buyback to key number of 14. Based on betting trend, it appears a few sharp bets early changed the line with betting action light overall.
Betting Trend – 98% backing Bowling Green
Doug’s VPID Take – Bowling Green covers
CFB – (329) CLEMSON at (330) MIAMI-FL 12:00 ET ABC
The rollercoaster nature of Miami has football bettors gravitating towards the more stable Clemson institution, who has been elevated two points to -6.5. Both offenses can move the ball but the Tigers are 10th in total defense and the Hurricanes are 61st. Miami coach Al Golden is 14-3 ATS as home underdog in his career. Update – Clemson is now at -7 and offshore sportsbooks known for taking sharper action are up to -7.5. The Miami defense will determine ultimately what side is the right one.
Betting Trend – 50% backing Clemson
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami-Fl. covers
CFB – (335) MIAMI-O at (336) WESTERN MICHIGAN 2:00 ET W-ESPN
Western Michigan punished a good Ohio U. club on the road and is beginning to meet preseason prognostications. Miami-O is 1-6 and is being outscored by 22.1 PPG, which has the oddsmakers lifting the Broncos from -22 to -25. With Western Michigan 8-0 after scoring 37 or more points, hard to pass on them if they come to play. Update – After reaching 26 on Thursday, some erosion has occurred with Western Michigan at -25 or -25.5. If the Broncos want to cover this spread they can, it depends on their motivation.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Western Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Western Michigan
CFB – (339) WYOMING at (340) BOISE STATE 10:15 ET ESPN2
Wyoming upset Nevada at home 28-21 for their first win of the season, while Boise State had one of their worst games ever in committing seven first half turnovers and eight in all in brutal loss to Utah State 52-26. The belief is the Broncos will want to pound somebody and they went from -31 to -35. Update – After toggling between 34 and 35, by Thursday the wagering market has settled on 35 for Boise State. If angry, the home team covers on the Smurf turf with ease.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Boise State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boise State
CFB – (351) KANSAS STATE at (352) TEXAS 12:00 ET FS1 (side and total) *New*
The combination of Kansas State being blanked by Oklahoma 55-0 and Texas upsetting the Sooners the week before 24-17, has played a part in enough sharps manipulating the Longhorns from -3.5 to -6.5. Wildcats losing more players to injury also plays a part. The total plummeting from 56 to 49 is in direct correlation to the remnants of Hurricane Patricia hitting Austin and most of the region with expected heavy rain.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Kansas State an 65% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas State and Under
CFB – (353) TEXAS A&M at (354) MISSISSIPPI 7:00 ET ESPN
Two SEC squads off ugly defeats and the early preference is the home team is more likely to get back on track. Mississippi opened as -4 home favorites and they are up to -6 at many sportsbooks. Texas A&M appears ill-suited for this matchup and is 13-30 ATS in road games versus teams scoring 34 or more points a game. Update – As the week progressed, Ole Miss number has been heading towards original starting point and most books are at -5 and the anticipation is -4 or -4.5 by kickoff is not out of the question.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Texas A&M
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Mississippi
CFB – (355) VIRGINIA at (356) NORTH CAROLINA 3:30 ET FSN Affil.
North Carolina has won five in row, covering the spread four times and is better offensively and defensively than they have been in years. If is the same old story for Virginia under coach Mike London and the Tar Heels have plenty of backers, taking them from -14.5 to -18. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS after a win by six or less. Update – Virginia money has made an impact, with the Cavaliers at +17 or +17.5. Not sure I agree with this and will follow closely with my own money.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Virginia
Doug’s VPID Take – North Carolina covers
CFB – (373) ARMY at (474) RICE 12:00 ET FSN Affli. *New*
Though nobody is going to mistake the Army for Navy’s football team, this is not the same Rice team we are used to seeing either and Owls have swooned from -11 to -7.5. However, I’m not buying into this line move, with Rice 25-10 ATS as a favorite under coach Dave Bailiff. Also, the Owls have had two weeks to prepare for option offense and they are 11-3 ATS off bye week.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Army
Doug’s VPID Take – Rice covers
CFB – (399) OHIO STATE at (400) RUTGERS 3:30 ET ABC *New*
The switch to J.T. Barrett has bettors thinking offense in this primetime Big Ten bash. The oddsmakers sent this one out at 58.5 and it has kept climbing all the way to 63.5. Besides looking for offensive improvement from the Buckeyes, Rutgers has the kind of offense which could score on Ohio State being able to both run and pass. Then Buckeyes are 15-6 OVER after scoring 31 points or more in three straight contests the last three seasons and should add to total.io
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (401) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (402) LSU 7:00 ET ESPNU
Western Kentucky has one of the best passing offenses in the country. Here is the dilemma, can the Hilltoppers slow an imposing LSU pass rush to give QB Brandon Doughty time to throw and will the Tigers keep the ball for long expanses with their potent running game? LSU has gone from -15 to -17. Update – Not one bit surprised seeing LSU falling anywhere from -15.5 to -16.5. Western Kentucky definitely has the offense to make this close than anticipated and Les Miles squads are not always mentally engaged as 6-15 ATS record off two consecutive home wins suggests. Backdoor cover potential wide open with Hilltoppers offense.
Betting Trend – 53% backing LSU
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean LSU
Other CFB Betting News – Friday night’s Utah State/San Diego State total is down two points in spite of 85% backing the Over…..Toledo/UMass total blowing up from 57 to 62 and over 80% of tickets written agree…..Pittsburgh’s much improved defense under first-year coach Pat Narduzzi and conservative offense has sent total plunging three points at Syracuse…..Tulane/Navy AAC affair has seen total collapse by four points to 44, with 90% on the Under…..Sportsbooks unfazed by over 90% on North Texas/Marshall OVER, leaving total at 60 all week…..How much will Tennessee score at Alabama? Evidently wise guys think not too much as total sinks from 56 to 53 despite 70% on the OVER……Here something you seldom see, a Baylor total going down (81 to 78), with those wondering if Iowa State will score enough…..It would seem if Southern Miss/Charlotte total would jump from 56 to 64, the Golden Eagles would be larger favorite, but that never happened. Oddsmaker error?…..South Florida’s improving defense has helped drop total from 65 to 60 against SMU…..Better than 95% on OVER for Washington State and Arizona and the total rises from 71 to 74.