We have the usual array of new line moves and those we have updates on from earlier in the week, with a couple teams flipped from favorites to underdogs in a hurry Friday morning. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (299-242 of late and recent 84-67 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday with NFL.
CFB – (311) OREGON at (312) CALIFORNIA 10:30 ET ESPN (side and total) *New*
This literally came out of nowhere as California was three-point home favorite all week against Oregon. After checking the numbers early Friday morning and returning less than three hours later, Oregon had shot up to a -1 point pick. Checked injury reports and found nothing and no betting trend to suggest anything, which can only mean some sharp or heavy money coming in on the Ducks, crazy. The total has also climbed from 87 to 90 in spite of bets placed favoring the other way. Don’t be shocked if Cal goes back to favorite.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Cal and 72% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Cal and Under
CFB – (331) EAST. MICHIGAN at (332) WEST. MICHIGAN 3:30 ET W-ESPN
If you have not seen Western Michigan play, this is a team very capable of finishing the regular season at 13-0 and if accomplished, could become the second MAC team to make a major bowl in five years. Even against an much improved rival like Eastern Michigan, the Broncos are up two points to -23.5, however, the Eagles are 6-1 ATS this year. Update – A couple of big Vegas sportsbooks have gone to -22, otherwise, everything else has remained steady.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Western Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Eastern Michigan
CFB – (327) INDIANA at (328) NORTHWESTERN 3:30 ET BTN
Despite Northwestern winning consecutive times on the road as underdog, they have fallen from -4.5 to -1.5 home favorites against ever improving Indiana. The Hoosiers a vastly stronger on both lines and the fact the Wildcats are 13-26 ATS as home favorites the last 11 years plays into line movement. Update – Across the board Northwestern has been on the rise back to -2.5. If like the ‘Cats, grab them not before they go up further. Indiana was at 89% of bets placed on Tuesday.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Indiana
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Northwestern
CFB –(335) NORTH CAROLINA at (336) VIRGINIA 3:00 ET W-ESPN
Virginia is making progress as with first-year head coach and has for a second straight week been lowered as home underdog, this time two digits to +8. After watching how Pittsburgh pushed the Cavaliers around, North Carolina has even more diverse offense and not sure they can keep up with Tar Heels, even with 9-3 SU and ATS record against UNC. Update – Strong reversal with North Carolina back to -9 early Friday and leaping to -11 hours later. Going over -10 makes this harder call.
Betting Trend – 82% backing North Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean North Carolina
CFB – (337) N.C. STATE at (338) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ABC
Despite 469 yards gained, Louisville only tallied 24 points at home against Duke last Friday. Evidently, N.C. State almost knocking off Clemson did not make bettors fear the Wolfpack, as the Cardinals have been juiced from -15.5 to -20. Maybe Louisville’s big play passing game dooms N.C. State, but I would wait to see if the numbers sinks before backing the ‘Ville. Update – Since Wednesday, this ACC encounter has been hanging around 19 or 19.5. I’ll take the points with better defense.
Betting Trend – 53% backing N.C. State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean N.C. State
CFB – (353) CHARLOTTE at (354) MARSHALL 5:30 ET BEIN-SP
With Marshall down this year and Charlotte more competitive coming off a pair of covers, the Thundering Herd is not making any noise in wagering circles and has slipped from -18 to -14. Both defenses are allowing over 37 PPG, which from the spread perspective gives the 49ers a shot at producing a winning ticket. Update – This is remarkable, as in spite of what the betting trends say, Marshall is all the way down to -10, that is an 8-point drop!\
Betting Trend – 52% backing Marshall
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Charlotte
CFB – (377) OREGON STATE at (378) WASHINGTON 6:30 ET PAC-12N
With Oregon State losing starting quarterback for the season and his backup out this week, the Beavers facing unbeaten Washington is a daunting task and they have gone from +31.5 to +35.5. These are coin flip bets, because the Huskies beat the spread if they want to with superior talent and clearly in a great position. Update – The most common figures are now Washington at -36.5 and -37.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
CFB – (387) TEXAS at (388) KANSAS STATE 12:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
This was the other contest which had a dramatic turn as to who should be favored. Kansas State was -2 or -2.5 all week and like Cal, Friday morning was flipped to +1. Personally, I never thought the Wildcats should have been favored with anemic offense and the total tumbling from 60 to 54 made sense to me. These adjustments basically add confusion not clarity, making for hard choices.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Texas and 61% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Texas and Under
CFB – (399) MISSISSIPPI at (400) LSU 9:00 ET ESPN *New*
LSU has been going steadily higher since Wednesday, starting at -4, up to -6.5 on Thursday and -7.5 on Friday afternoon. The assumption is how does Mississippi’s run defense, which allows 4.7 YPC, slow the Tigers who average 6.4 YPC. Also, if LSU’s run defense takes away the Rebels running game, which is quite possible, Ole Miss become one dimensional.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Mississippi
Doug’s VPID Take – LSU covers
CFB – (409) FRESNO STATE at (410) UTAH STATE 10:30 ET CBSSN *New*
Utah State is only 2-4 and has lost three straight, but drops down in class to face Fresno State in MWC matchup. The Aggies have been juiced from -14 to -17, yet as bad as the Bulldogs are at 1-5, they have covered three of last four contests. While Utah State definitely has a beatable opponent and should win, not sure this brings out the best of the Aggies to cover this adjusted price.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Utah State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Fresno State
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (14-21 ATS record) – Michigan, Utah, Minnesota, Utah State and Wyoming
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (14-21 record) – Mich. St./Maryl. UNDER, Colo. St./UNLV OVER, Ill./Mich. OVER, UNC/Virg. UNDER and Purdue/Neb. Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 233-213-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 155-125-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 395-358-3