Another college football weekend is on tap as we reach the midpoint of the season and bettors and sports have had a busy week changing the numbers for these college football line moves. Today we update the games from earlier in the week along with adding new games and looking into other elements.
Please return Sunday for all the NFL line moves for Week 6 along with free picks.
CFB – Friday (117) UNLV at (118) FRESNO STATE 10:30 ET ESPN2
UNLV is an improved squad under first-year coach Tony Sanchez, who has done a great job switching the culture. Not so good for Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter, whose recruiting efforts have the Bulldogs at 1-5 and 0-5-1 ATS. Given the Rebels past, hard to imagine them going from -3 to -6 road favorites. Update – UNLV has been as high as -7 and while Fresno State looks like bad team, too much history for me.
Betting Trend – 66% backing UNLV
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Fresno State
CFB – (131) FLORIDA INT. at (132) MID. TENNESSEE ST. 12:00 ET FSN Affil.
Middle Tennessee State might be on a three-game losing streak but bettors are undeterred in thinking they should handle Florida International. After three tough opponents, this is a step down in class for the Blue Raiders and they are up three points to -9. However, FIU is 13-3 ATS after scoring 37 or more points. Update – No ceiling yet on the Blue Raiders with Friday afternoon having them up to -11.5 or -12.
Betting Trend – 80% backing M.T.S.
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida International
CFB – (135) BOSTON COLLEGE at (136) CLEMSON 7:00 ET ESPNU
Boston College is No.1 in total defense and No.2 in scoring defense at 7.2 PPG. This is why the Eagles have swooned from +17 to +15 road underdogs at Clemson. One major sticking point, take away their two FCS victories and the B.C. offense scores SIX PPG. Do you feel comfortable going against the Tigers? Update – A one point adjustment has occurred with Clemson back to -16.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Clemson
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Boston College
CFB – (139) PURDUE at (140) WISCONSIN 12:00 ET BTN *New*
The Wisconsin offense is nowhere near as good as it’s been in the past in averaging only 26.7 PPG, yet football bettors like their chances of improving versus a Purdue defense which is conceding 34.3 PPG and shifted the Badgers four points to -23.5. What you as the bettor have to answer is can Wisconsin score touchdowns on the Boilermakers who have committed three turnovers in four of their six contests.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Wisconsin
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wisconsin
CFB – (143) WAKE FOREST at (144) NORTH CAROLINA 7:00 ET W- ESPN
The Wake Forest defense has done a good job all season and is holding opposing teams to 17 PPG. However, the Demon Deacons have not faced an offense as diverse and explosive as North Carolina’s, which has led to the Tar Heels being moved two points to -17. Nonetheless, UNC is 3-12 ATS after four or more consecutive wins. Update – This has held steady all week with the betting markets satisfied with the number.
Betting Trend – 51% backing North Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wake Forest
CFB – (157) AIR FORCE at (158) COLORADO STATE 3:30 ET CBSSN *New*
With Colorado State having given up 33 PPG in their last four contests and of equal importance 194 rushing yards per game, Air Force has gone from a Pick to -4 at Fort Collins. Both teams have shown a propensity to turn the ball over, thus hard to gauge what that will end up meaning. Nevertheless, taking the Falcons going over a key number like three on the road is hard to hand out. The Rams are 21-9 ATS home having lost two out of their last three games.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Air Force
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado State
CFB – (159) ALABAMA at (160) TEXAS A&M 3:30 ET CBS
The total on this SEC encounter has been like a tidal wave, rising from 47 to 52 points. Have to agree the opening total seemed low, but both defenses are holding most teams well below their seasonal averages and it may not be as farfetched as it appears. Alabama is 14-4 OVER away after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. Update – This total was all the way up to 54 by Wednesday and has stayed there until Friday morning when books known for taking sharper action were coming down to 53.5.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (163) NEBRASKA at (164) MINNESOTA 3:30 ET ESPN2
With four last second losses, Nebraska is reeling and football bettors pushed this Big Ten battle from Pick to the Cornhuskers at +2. Nebraska’s downfall on defense is their pass defense, but Minnesota ranks 105th throwing the ball which should help the Huskers. Still, the Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS as home faves under 7. Update – Sportsbooks have slowing been lifting the Golden Gophers up to -2.5 and if it hits -3, look for Nebraska money to come fast.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Nebraska
Doug’s VPID Take – Nebraska covers
CFB – (167) OKLAHOMA at (168) KANSAS STATE 3:30 ET ABC *New*
Somewhat baffled to see the total tumble from 58 to 54 in this Big 12 battle. Both teams have offenses averaging over 36 PPG and against better competition, the defenses have shown they will give up points. Also, six of the last seven games have gone OVER the number and I will be supporting the higher total.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (175) WEST VIRGINA at (176) BAYLOR 12:00 ET FOX (Side and Total)
With how Baylor is playing again, they are up three points to -21 and so is the total to 78. West Virginia has nine turnovers in their past two games and the Bears are forcing nearly three a contest, which spells trouble for Mountaineers. With Baylor 12-1 ATS at home when the total is 70 or higher and 12-3 OVER after a victory by 35 or more, this is one-way action. Update – Roughly two-thirds of betting outlets checked have sent the Bears to -21.5 and that does not seem like an accident. The total has regressed to 76 in spite of the tickets written.io
Betting Trend – 76% backing Baylor and 93% on the Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Baylor covers and Over
CFB – (203) USC at (204) NOTRE DAME 7:30 ET NBC
Once Steve Sarkisian was shown the door, the betting public pounced on Notre Dame, lifting them from -4 to -7. Nobody knows what mental state USC will be in, just do not expect the Fighting Irish to feel sorry for the Trojans after being smashed by them 49-14 in L.A. last year. Update – USC has called in several famous alums to get the Trojans fired up and to focus on the rivalry. Almost every sportsbook looked at has taken Notre Dame down an notch or two to -6 or -6.5.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Notre Dame
Doug’s VPID Take – Notre Dame covers
Other CFB Betting News – The total on Cincinnati and BYU is up six points to 67 with quarterbacks Gunner Kiel and Tanner Magnum both listed as ‘Probable’…..Houston is up four points also on Friday, but could have as many as three starting offensive linemen out with injury….Have to be honest, not sure why Buffalo/Central Michigan total went from 49.5 to 54, other than to say it did…..Under the headline of “Kardashian’s in the News”, is anyone surprised Kansas is a growing underdog against Texas Tech and the total is going up?…..Virginia Tech has fallen from -6 to -4 with the news QB Michael Brewer is ‘Probable’. Oddly, the total went down two points also…..Appalachian State has a good club and rose from -10 to -13.5 at UL-Monroe…..Finally, and with amazement from what we thought this summer, Oregon went from a Pick to +3 at Washington. Consider the Golden Nugget’s sportsbook late June releases had the Ducks at -15 back then.