A big holiday week of football and we start by looking at all the largest college football line moves. This includes a MAC contest tonight plus other games this week. Be back here tomorrow when we breakdown the NFL numbers for Week 12.
CFB – Tuesday (101) BOWLING GREEN at (102) BALL STATE 7:00 ET W-ESPN
Bowling Green is the MAC East champs and will play for conference championship next week. The Falcons were flat for what should have been at least a semi-important game with Toledo, whom they could still possibly meet in the MAC title tilt, but committed five turnovers in 44 -28 setback. One would think Bowling Green would have more purpose and be ready tonight, not wanting two dull outings this time of year and they have been bumped two points to -23 at Ball State. With the Falcons second in the country in passing yards and the Cardinals 122nd versus the pass, hard to argue the line move. Total also climbed, sitting at 74 from opening 69.5. Not as sold on that adjustment with Ball State averaging only 24.3 PPG.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Bowling Green and 51% Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Bowling Green and Under
CFB – Friday (115) MARSHALL at (116) WESTERN KENTUCKY 12:00 ET FS1
Conference USA East Division crown on the line and with Western Kentucky involved, the total has been pumped up like a turkey loaded with stuffing from 60 to 63 points. The Hilltoppers average 43.7 PPG and while Marshall holds opponents to 15.6 PPG, hard to think WKU will not dictate tempo leading to higher score.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
CFB – Friday (131) MISSOURI at (132) ARKANSAS 2:30 ET CBS
With a typical Missouri contest this year averaging 29.6 total points, it is at least a little odd to see the total hop two points to 46. But Arkansas balances this out being at 65.8 total PPG. Common sense make line appear correct but impossible to ignore the Tigers are 10-1 UNDER this season and proud defensively.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Over
CFB – (145) OHIO STATE at (146) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET ABC
Major flip with Ohio State going from -2 to +2 at Ann Arbor. Urban Meyer has his plate full trying to bring team together, while Jim Harbaugh can sense the trouble with the Buckeyes. Unless Ohio State really opens up and uses trick plays to excite players, not sure where Buckeyes motivation comes from.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Ohio State
CFB – (147) UL-LAFAYETTE at (148) APPALACHIAN STATE 2:00 ET W-ESPN
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight and are blowing up as underdogs to Appalachian State. UL-Lafayette has gone from +21 to +23.5 against a Mountaineers team that is winning by 19.9 PPG this season and its only Sun Belt loss will be to champion Arkansas State. If App. State wants to cover, they do.
Betting Trend – 80% backing UL-Lafayette
CFB – (181) NORTH CAROLINA at (182) N.C. STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
The initial logic lifting the total three points to 64.5 makes sense because North Carolina averages over 40 PPG and N.C. State’s defense has not nearly as strong versus winning teams. Nonetheless, upon closer inspection North Carolina only averages 26.7 PPG in non-home games and holds opposing teams to under 20 PPG. Worth noting.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
CFB – (187) FLORIDA STATE at (188) FLORIDA 7:30 ET ESPN
Florida might be 10-1 and at home, but they have not impressed many with six games decided by a seven or fewer points (Gators 5-1 SU). Florida State would also be 10-1 except for nutty Georgia Tech blocked kick scoop and score on final play. The Seminoles attracting action and moved from Pick to -2 in enemy territory.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Florida State
CFB – (193) TEXAS A&M at (194) LSU 7:30 ET SECN
The supposed outstanding LSU defense has allowed over 30 points in last three contests and with multiple reports Les Miles and staff will be bought out, focus is an issue for Tigers whose season has gone down drain. The totals adjustment mirrors this, up from 50.5 to 53. Average score of LSU game in this season is 57.6 points a contest.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Under
CFB – (215) MISSISSIPPI at (216) MISSISSIPPI STATE 7:15 ET ESPN2
This year’s edition of the Egg Bowl has two high-powered offenses led by good quarterbacks who can push the ball down the field and run for first downs. With this, the total has been jacked three points to 64. However, history tells us the Under is 10-3 in last 13 battles, leaving something to contemplate for sports bettors.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over