Here is the complete action in college football line moves for the third weekend of November. We have the newest moves, updates on prior games this week, along with free picks. Want some? Please return Sunday for NFL update.
CFB – Friday (317) AIR FORCE at (318) BOISE STATE 9:30 ET ESPN2
When you lose outright as 30.5-point home favorite, you are going to have detractors. Boise State’s upset loss to New Mexico was stunning and have to beat first place Air Force just for a chance to win their division and they are down two points to -12. The Falcons have covered last three and are looking for more. Update – The cash continues to come in on the Air Force, now down to +11. There has also been a development on the total, slipping from 57 to 55. Boise State is 9-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Air Force and 80% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Air Force and Over
CFB – (341) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (342) FLORIDA INT. 2:30 ET FCS
Those betting football are confident Western Kentucky is not looking ahead to big game with Marshall next week and chases the Hilltoppers from -15 to -17. Western Kentucky should be able to expose a faltering Florida International defense, yet the Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS away after a pair of conference tilts. Update – About two-thirds of sportsbooks have lowered Western Kentucky to -16.5, with the rest stable at -17.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Western Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean FIU
CFB – (343) LSU at (344) MISSISSIPPI 3:30 ET CBS
Each of these SEC squads has proficient offenses, yet the total has sunk from 59 to 56.5. Has the LSU running offense be solved in scoring 30 total points in past two outings? Will the Tigers defensive toughness return to hold Mississippi well below their 40.7 PPG average? Ole Miss is 17-4 UNDER against teams scoring 31 or more points a contest. Update – Just a little more of decline to 56 with strong betting trend backing this.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (449) MEMPHIS at (450) TEMPLE 12:00 ET ESPNU *New*
Rather curious totals move from 64.5 to 58. On one hand this would seem to favor Temple, who is thought of as better defensive team. But the Owls have allowed 36 PPG in last three contests and goes against Memphis who averages 43.7 PPG. Also, let’s compare common opponents, the Tigers games have resulted in total scores of 64.6 and Temple 62 points. Does this line move make sense to you?
Betting Trend – 74% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (359) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (360) ARKANSAS 7:00 ET ESPN
In the other SEC contest involving a Mississippi University, the total on Bulldogs and Arkansas is building from 54 to 56.5. Though both teams are combined 12-7 UNDER on the season, I believe this will be a loosely played contest, with both offenses making plays. I have system that says 90 percent chance of OVER. Update – No stopping this rising total just yet, having climbed to 58.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (363) NAVY at (364) TULSA 7:00 ET CBSSN *New*
Navy is second in the country in rushing at 335 YPG, at 5.6 yards a carry. Tulsa concedes 222 YPG on the ground and permits 4.9 YPC. How do the Golden Hurricane slow the Middies down? Do not know, nor do others and Navy is up two points to -12.5. Navy running the ball in this manner is not news, but holding opposing 8.9 PPG less than there scoring average is, which is why the Midshipmen are 8-1 and 7-2 ATS.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Navy
Doug’s VPID Take – Navy covers
CFB – (369) BAYLOR at (370) OKLAHOMA STATE 7:30 ET FOX
There was speculation back in early October Baylor’s last few games could have total’s in the 90’s, but with starting quarterback out that changed perceptions. Even here the oddsmakers number is down from 81 to 78. This definitely seems like the right adjustment, making this a harder call, despite the Cowboys 18-2 OVER record at home after gaining 450 or more yards in consecutive contests. Update – One more dip to 77 points in this Big 12 battle and some important money is shifting the number because the betting trend does not support what is happening.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (375) MICHIGAN at (376) PENN STATE 12:00 ET ABC
With Michigan’s defense not having same ferociousness as the first part of season and massive matchup with Ohio State on deck, the Wolverines have to dipped two points as favorites to -3.5. Penn State has covered past three at home with Michigan and outcome comes down to Nittany Lions offense production. Update – Steady all week but on Friday, a few Vegas books were up to Michigan at -4. Watch to see if this continues.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan
CFB – (389) NEW MEXICO STATE at (390) UL-LAFAYETTE 5:00 ET W-ESPN
After starting 0-7, New Mexico State has won twice outright as underdogs and is 4-2 ATS in last six. With UL-Lafayette 1-5-1 ATS since September, the visiting Aggies are getting the action right? Nope, the Ragin’ Cajuns are on the rise from -13 to -15.5, with New Mexico State last covering three straight in 2011. Update – A consistent flow of money has pushed this Sun Belt clash to 17. This appears to be the threshold.
Betting Trend – 69% backing UL-Lafayette
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UL-Lafayette
CFB – (407) NOTRE DAME vs. (408) BOSTON COLLEGE 6:30 ET NBC *New*
If Wake Forest can hold Notre Dame to just 28 points in South Bend, why can’t a stellar Boston College defense do the same thing in somewhat neutral site game in which they will have more fans cheering for them? That’s what football bettors are wondering and Eagles are down two points to +15.5. The Fighting Irish have a long history of winning by not covering against first-rate defenses at 7-22 ATS versus squads allowing 285 or fewer yards a game. Will B.C.’s 121st ranked scoring offense do enough to cover?
Betting Trend – 53% backing Boston College
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Notre Dame
CFB – (409) USC at (410) OREGON 3:30 ET ESPN
The Oregon offense is en fuego and the Ducks supporters are back, taking them from -1.5 to -4. Of course there is cause for concern with Oregon allowing 37.1 PPG and 1-4 ATS this season in Eugene. Still, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS after three or more covers and dangerous. Update – Roughly 75 percent of books now have Oregon at -4.5. The total is also swimming with the Ducks, up from 70 to 72.5. Interesting to find Oregon 12-2 UNDER when facing offenses averaging 450 or more YPG.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Oregon and 90% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean USC and Over
CFB – (413) PURDUE at (414) IOWA 12:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
Unbeaten Iowa is just 2-3 ATS in last five, but the betting public is showing faith in them they will cover against Purdue in home finale, up from -19.5 to -22.5. The line adjustment places the Hawkeyes is favorable position since underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points like the Boilermakers, after one or more straight up losses, facing opponent with eight or more consecutive straight up wins, are 11-32 ATS, losing by 34.3 PPG. However, compelling betting trend.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Purdue
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Iowa
Other CFB Betting News – Georgia State has been pumped up like new Reebok’s from Pick to -3 against South Alabama…..Despite incredibly bad ACC campaign, Georgia Tech has gone from +1 to -2.5 at Miami-Fl…..Missouri’s defense has them down to +7 against visiting Tennessee…..Having trouble understanding why offensively-challenged Miami-O and Massachusetts total has bubbled up from 52 to 55…..Bettors have zero faith in Kansas offense and lowered the total from 64 to 58.5 with West Virginia in Lawrence…..In Big 12 contest, Iowa State and Kansas State have seen total fall from 58 to 53.5, in spite of two defenses allowing over 32 PPG…..UCLA vs. Utah total down four points to 55.5 with news of Utes RB Devontae Booker having knee surgery…..Texas A&M and Vanderbilt total has climbed three digits to 43, which seem to favor the Aggies…..Despite two lousy defenses, the Rice and UTSA contest has seen the total slide from 61 to 57.5.