We have all the latest line moves on changing conditions and those from earlier in the week. Speaking of changing conditions, there are several totals which are falling where wind, rain and cold are going thru on Saturday and we will not be discussing those because other factors are causing alterations. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (361-282 of late and recent 144-108 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.
CFB – Friday – (317) UNLV at (318) BOISE STATE 9:00 ET ESPN2
With Wyoming being upset by UNLV last Saturday and having to face San Diego State this week, if the Cowboys lose and Boise State wins, they take back control of the MWC Mountain Division. The betting populace likes their chances and are riding the Broncos from -27 to -28.5. Boise State however is only 2-9 ATS as home favorite the last two years. Update – With rare exception, this line has stayed unchanged, but not sure Boise State’s defense is good enough to handle this large a number.
Betting Trend – 64% backing UNLV
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UNLV
CFB – (329) IOWA at (330) ILLINOIS 12:00 ET BTN
After watching Iowa upset Michigan and Illinois being harpooned by Wisconsin, it made little sense for the Hawkeyes to slip two points to -9.5. Then we learned original Illini starting quarterback Wes Lunt is expected to start and bettors expressed their thoughts on his value. With adjusted spread off key number and Illinois 1-8 ATS at home off a road game, the situation favors Iowa. Update – A couple more public books in Vegas have gone back to 10 points, but it is my understanding the action has been light since early alternation. Not sure how you back Illini here.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Iowa
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Iowa
CFB – (351) SAN DIEGO STATE at (352) WYOMING 3:30 ET CBSSN
No other way to state this, the San Diego State is a runaway truck going down a steep grade and they have been pounded from -7.5 to -10 at Wyoming. The Cowboys defense was exposed by UNLV and the Aztecs have the running game to put the hurt on them again. S.D. State is 9-2 ATS off MWC thumping of 21 or more points. Update – Another contest with heavy wagering early than slowed down with market satisfied. Big edge for San Diego State offense over Wyoming defense.
Betting Trend – 93% backing San Diego State
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego State covers
CFB – (363) FLORIDA STATE at (364) SYRACUSE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New*
Bettors are of the opinion that the Syracuse defense is not going to contain the Florida State offense and the total has jumped a whopping five points to 63.5. While for line moves we understand the premise, but the Orange regular starting QB is out and not expected to play in this one either with concussion and the ‘Cuse has only run up 20 points in almost two games since backup took over.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (371) ARIZONA STATE at (372) WASHINGTON 7:30 ET FOX
Everyone assumes Washington will pulverize Arizona State off first loss of the season and they were moved from -25 to -27. The Huskies might destroy the Sun Devils, but you need to know teams losing first game in November are notoriously bad bets afterwards and Washington is 0-10 SU and ATS against Arizona State since 2002. Update – At this time, a mix of 27 or 27.5 for the spread. While there is no doubt who the better team is, besides the other info we passed along, the Huskies are also 0-10 ATS after USC contest. Gulp!
Betting Trend – 67% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona State
CFB – (373) WASHINGTON STATE at (374) COLORADO 3:30 ET FOX *New*
Stock up on Colorado, at least that is how the sportsbooks are going with this Buffaloes herd, shifted from -3.5 to -5.5 or -6 depending on the location. While we are big fans of the Buffs resurgence, Washington State has outstanding pass offense and is much improved in defense. Keep in mind, road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in a game involving two offensive teams averaging 440 or more YPG, after gaining 525 or more total yards a game over their last three contests, are 33-8 ATS since 2012.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Washington State
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington State covers
CFB –(391) TULSA at (392) CENTRAL FLORIDA 8:00 ET ESPNN
The line could not be more clearly drawn which of these AAC teams has the better offense and the better defense. The wagering public early sided with defense and the home team and took Central Florida from +2.5 to +1. Just not convinced the Knights can contain the Golden Hurricane, who is also 9-2 ATS on visitors role. Update – The flow of cash continues to pour in on Central Florida and they at a Pick or even -1. Good chance the Knights will be favored across the board by game time, nonetheless, still prefer Tulsa’s offense and grit on the road.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Central Florida
Doug’s VPID Take – Tulsa covers
CFB – (397) TEXAS at (398) KANSAS 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
This is the poorest game being telecast on ABC, at least to a portion of the country in recent memory. Texas wins and is bowl eligible and it is justified the Longhorns have enough offense to cover against Kansas even if they were lifted from -22.5 to -24. Texas knows it can win, but the Jayhawks are 3-1-1 ATS at home. Update – Public sportsbooks in Vegas have taken Texas down a notch to -23.5, otherwise, the rest have remained the same. Worried about Longhorns level of interest.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Kansas
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas
CFB – (405) USC at (406) UCLA 10:30 ET ESPN *New*
USC might be the best team in the Pac-12 at this moment and they have been lifted three-points to -13.5 at archrival UCLA. Normally, the Bruins would be near automatic play, but what you have to take a hard look at is UCLA has committed 17 turnovers in their last five contests and only one that Trojans could convert into points might be the difference. We’ll give the nod to the Bruins and grab the Tums at the same time.
Betting Trend – 87% backing USC
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UCLA
CFB – (411) OREGON at (412) UTAH 2:00 ET PAC-12N
With Utah still in contention for Pac-12 South title and Oregon showing no signs of interest in playing any defense, the Utes are up from -12 to -13.5. It is near certainty the Ducks will only grow as underdogs with one the nation’s worst defenses and a worse attitude to match. Oregon is a pathetic 1-8-1 ATS this season. Update – By Wednesday, Utah was at -14 and on Friday, -14.5 and -15 were commonly found on the Utes, just as we expected.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take – Utah covers
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (24-30-1 ATS record) – Utah, Florida State, San Diego State, Duke and Tennessee
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (26-29 record) – Tulsa /UCF OVER, Iowa/Illinois UNDER, Flor./LSU UNDER, Missi./Vandy UNDER and USC/UCLA OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 266-251-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 170-144-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 450-408-5