Time to get ready for Championship Week for betting college football and we have the latest line moves to cover as the games approach. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (384-309 of late) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.
CFB – Friday – (303) OHIO U. vs. (304) WESTERN MICHIGAN 7:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
For the MAC championship, the total has risen two points to 58.5. That would suggest and rightly so Western Michigan will control this contest. It comes down to Ohio U. defense which has allowed 21.7 PPG this season, yet has given up 49 and 42 points the last two years to the Broncos. Not sure Bobcats have speed to slow Western Michigan. Update – About half the sportsbooks reviewed are up to 59, with the balance still at 58.5. The other development is the unbeaten Broncos have slipped from -19 to -17. Having beaten Ohio U. by 34 and 21 points the last two years, not seeing that happening.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over 65% on Western Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Over and Western Michigan
CFB – Friday – (305) COLORADO vs. (306) WASHINGTON 9:00 ET FOX
The two best defenses in the Pac-12 play for the title and appropriately the total has slipped from 60 to 58. How the total plays out will be a function of the defenses conceding field goals instead of touchdowns, as both teams will move the pigskin. Though Washington is 9-2 OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game, not sure they reach 35 points. Update – The adjustment continues with the total down to 56 or 55.5. I liked the UNDER at 60 or 58, but not as hot on it at this low of figure.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean on Under
CFB – (311) NEW. MEXICO ST. at (312) SOUTH ALABAMA 1:00 ET W- ESPN *New*
This is a true bettor’s special as anyone looking at the total of this contest needs another hobby. Why they would take the total for this SBC affair from 56 to 58, is forecasting how the New Mexico State defense will play, permitting 50 PPG on the road. But how much effort does South Alabama use against such a weak opponent? Update – Roughly a third of the wagering outlets have come back to 57.5, but that is about it. I’ll have to think the home team will feast on Aggies defense. With this in mind, South Alabama has gone from -11 to -12.5 and with New Mexico State starting QB listed as ‘doubtful’, I will back the Jaguars.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Under and 75% on South Alabama
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans with Over and South Alabama
CFB – (315) UL-LAFAYETTE at (316) UL-MONROE 3:00 ET W-ESPN *New*
The total has really been tumbling this week in the battle for the “Battle in the Bayou”, down an enormous four points to 56. That is a contrary position given there has been five straight OVER’s in this rivalry and the betting trend is public betting stance. Nonetheless, both teams average less than 26 points a game. Both have strong OVER tendencies, but I’ll back move with the road the visitor winning 30-20.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (317) OKLAHOMA STATE at (318) OKLAHOMA 12:30 ET FOX
Big 12 title on the line and Oklahoma has really slid as favorite, down to -11 from opening number of -13.5. What football bettors are looking at is the Sooners 122nd-rated pass defense taking on Oklahoma State’s 6th ranked passing attack. If successful, the Cowboys could make visitor 5-0 ATS in Bedlam game. Update – No real move in Bedlam Game and Oklahoma State still looks like play.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Oklahoma State
Doug’s VPID Take – Oklahoma State covers
CFB –(323) LOUISIANA TECH at (324) WEST. KENTUCKY 12:00 ET ESPN
The Conference USA title game was hit hard early, with Western Kentucky elevated from -7.5 to -10. Louisiana Tech was playing basically as well as the Hilltoppers until losing finale to Southern Miss. Nevertheless, Western Kentucky has gone into another level in ripping teams by 34 PPG and is playing at home with revenge. Update – About a quarter of the books checked have reserved position to 9.5, which matters being a key number in what should be a high scoring affair.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Western Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Western Kentucky covers
CFB – (325) TEMPLE at (326) NAVY 12:00 ET ABC
Intriguing dichotomy how both AAC finalists are approaching the total, which has fallen two points to 62. Temple is on 4-0 UNDER roll, while Navy’s high-scoring offense arrives at 6-1 OVER. The outcomes hinges on the Owls keeping the Midshipmen out of the end zone and Temple exploiting Navy’s weak pass defense. Chances are both offenses will shine. Update – The totals erosion continues with new number at 61. Just not seeing it and expecting a lot of points from both teams and final score around 70.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (327) FLORIDA at (328) ALABAMA 4:00 ET CBS
This hardly feels like a championship showdown in the SEC, with Alabama so much better than everyone in their conference. With Florida having little offense and ravaged with injures on defense, the Gators are not thought to have any bite and were shifted two points higher to +24. Expect Florida to be fired up, but the Tide to roll in the second half. Update – Bama at -24 has held up all week and do not see that changing by game time. Public will back the Tide and enough dog bettors will take the points.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Alabama
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Alabama
CFB – (329) SAN DIEGO STATE at (330) WYOMING 7:45 ET ESPN *New*
For the MWC championship, the total has sunk two points to 61. In the games these teams played two weeks ago in Laramie, Wyoming was a 34-33 winner. Both these clubs can score and move the ball and each is coming off a really horrible defensive game. Not sure about if both recover and teams like San Diego State after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored, against opponent after four straight games where 60 total points or more were tallied, are 32-11 OVER.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (26-38-1 ATS record) – West Virginia, Wyoming and Arkansas State
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (31-34 record) – Baylor /W. Virginia OVER, Virg. Tech/Clemson OVER and ULL/UL-Monroe OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 284-268-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 178-152-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 482-449-5