College Football Line Moves and Free Picks (Dec.4-5)

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The final weekend of college football has arrived before the bowl game announcements and we are on top of the college football line moves from early in the week to the present. Besides this very useful information, we also have free picks on each contest to share. Please return Sunday when we review everything about Week 13 in the NFL.

CFB – Friday (303) NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. (304) BOWLING GREEN  8:00 ET ESPN2

Bowling Green was going to favored anyway in the MAC championship, but with Northern Illinois down to third string quarterback, the Falcons have flown from -9.5 to -11.5. Bowling Green is going to score, but can the Huskies keep pace with QB this far down the depth chart? UpdateBecause of NIU’s QB situation and this not being the kind of defense we have seen from other Huskies clubs of the past, most are not sure how Northern Illinois will score and contain Bowling Green and pushed the line to 13.5.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Bowling Green

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Northern Illinois

CFB – (307) GEORGIA STATE at (308) GEORGIA SOUTHERN  2:00 ET  W-ESPN  *New*

The total in this Sun Belt Conference battle of Georgia has been sinking, down three points to 58. What the thinking could be is Georgia Southern could certainly hold their counterparts offense, as the Eagles only allow 22.3 PPG. Though Georgia Southern scores 37.7 PPG, in common opponents, Georgia State has only conceded 23.8 PPG. The adjustment sure seems correct making this a harder call. The public trend does not come close to matching where the number is going.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – (309) TEXAS STATE at (310) ARKANSAS STATE  3:00 ET  W-ESPN  (side and total)

All Arkansas State needs to do is win to be outright Sun Belt Conference champions again for the third time since 2011. The betting public thinks the Red Wolves have it in the bag and lifted them three points to -25. With Texas State 124th in total defense and Arkansas State 7-0 OVER in SBC action, the total has risen also from 67 to 69.5. UpdateThe soon to be champion Red Wolves continue to climb, now split between -25.5 and -26. The total has also gone up one more notch to 70.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Arkansas State and 98% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Arkansas State and Over

CFB – (311) NEW MEXICO STATE at (312) UL-MONROE  3:00 ET  W-ESPN  *New*

With Warhawks quarterback Garrett Smith listed as doubtful and New Mexico State 3-1 SU and ATS in their past four, with only defeat coming to SBC champion Arkansas State, the Aggies have gone from +3 to Pick or -1 at various sportsbooks. New Mexico State has gone through a series of quarterbacks due to injury and has found answers to not only make the running game click, but the passing game as well at 299.7 YPG in this stretch. With UL-Monroe 3-11 ATS at home, the Aggies are worth a look.

Betting Trend – 96% backing New Mexico State

Doug’s VPID Take – New Mexico State covers

CFB – (313) WEST VIRGINIA at (314) KANSAS STATE 4:30 ET  FS1

Though the average score of Kansas State game is 62.1 PPG, West Virginia is holding opposing teams averaging 34.9 PPG to just 23.1. The belief is the Mountaineers can do the same in the Little Apple and lowered the total from 60 to 57.5. The average score of three previous encounters has been 52 total points. UpdateA couple sportsbooks at 58, with everyone else steady at 57.5.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CFB – (319) SOUTHERN MISS at (320) WESTERN KENTUCKY  12:00 ET  ESPN2

Western Kentucky has established they are an excellent offense team and deserved to be favored at home in C-USA title game. Nevertheless, a breakdown of the stats finds Southern Miss has very comparable numbers and could well compete, which has led to Hilltoppers tumbling from -8.5 to -7. The Golden Eagles are 10-2 ATS in 2015. UpdateThe half point hook is now in play with Western Kentucky back to -7.5.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Southern Miss

Doug’s VPID Take – Southern Miss covers

CFB – (321) TEMPLE at (322) HOUSTON  12:00 ET  ABC  (side and total)

Houston went from -5 to -7 in no time at all in first AAC championship game. The Cougars have speed edges all over the field and with Greg Ward Jr. healthy again at quarterback, even a very good defense like Temple will have problems on the road. Houston defense is also underrated. UpdateSharp bettors have stepped in and gobbled up Temple, lowering them back down to +5.5. This is correlated at least in principle with the total tumbling from 57 to 54.5. If you like the Owls, the UNDER makes sense, just like Houston and an OVER.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Houston and 74% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Houston covers and Over

CFB – (325) FLORIDA vs. (326) ALABAMA  4:00 ET  CBS  *New*

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comFlorida is the biggest underdog by far in all the conference title tilts and why not. The Gators are only averaging 16.4 PPG in their past five contests and faces Alabama, who is third in the country in points allowed at 14.3. Florida has gone up two points to +18 and if they are to cover, the offense has to score at least their recent average and hope their No.5 scoring defense prevents the Crimson Tide from making big plays and can force a few turnovers. Going over an important number like 17 would seem advantageous to the Gators, but if they turnover the pigskin, adios.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Alabama

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida

CFB – (327) AIR FORCE at (328) SAN DIEGO STATE  7:30 ET  ESPN2

Both Mountain West clubs in the title tilt average over 31 PPG, yet the total is sinking from 52.5 to 51. Both squads are running teams and they possess the ball for over 32 minutes a contest. Both have done a good job defensively and if the game is shorted by running clock, points won’t come easy. Also, teams are 9-1 UNDER at San Diego State. UpdateThe latest most common number is 49.5, with a couple books on either side at 49 or 50.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CFB – (329) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (330) CLEMSON 8:00 ET  ABC

Is anyone shocked the total in this ACC affair has gone from 63 to 66.5? However, this might be over-reaction because both are solid defensively and focus will be a fever pitch. North Carolina’s offense not quite as potent away from Chapel Hill. If you like OVER, might wait to see if total regresses. UpdateThe number has not come down at all, now residing in 67 to 67.5 neighborhood.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – (331) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (332) IOWA  8:15 ET  FOX  *New*

Both these Big Ten teams average over 33 points a contest and surrender under 21.5 points. The original total of 52.5 has drifted downward slowly all week to current level of 51. I could see this happening, as both average over 40 rush attempts a game, but defensively give up 3.6 or fewer yards a carry. Found what appears to be a rather meaningful system which finds neutral field teams like Michigan State, who have won three out of their last four games, going against opponent who has won eight or more out of their last 10 contests, with the total between 49.5 and 56, the UNDER is 27-5 the last 32 years, with average final score 41.2 total points.

Betting Trend – 50% Split

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

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