Wow, the games with the biggest line moves are certainly not the most attractive college football games on the board for this week. Nonetheless, this is what the betting public and other picked early. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (245-194 of late and recent 29-20 mark), when posted, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL numbers.
CFB – Friday – (305) TCU at (306) SMU 8:00 ET ESPN
With SMU having covered against Baylor and TCU 0-3 ATS to this point of the season, football bettors were not comfortable with the Horned Frogs at -23 and lowered them to -21. The Mustangs defense has forced 10 turnovers, which is a positive development, but the seven they have committed is not. On last aspect, the Ponies have covered three in a row at home over TCU.
Betting Trend – 64% backing SMU
CFB – (321) SYRACUSE at (322) CONNECTICUT 1:00 ET CBSSN
Though Connecticut has a winning record, they have yet to beat the spread this season largely because the offense is averaging a mere 20.3 PPG. And it is not like the Huskies are facing SEC defenses each week, which has in part been why they UConn has crumbled as favorites from -6.5 to -3.5. However, the ‘Cuse is 8-20 as road underdogs of seven or less.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Syracuse
CFB – (343) CHARLOTTE at (344) TEMPLE 12:00 ET W-ESPN
Not sure how or why somebody would bet enough to force the sportsbooks to move this line 2.5 points, yet that is what happened with Temple down from -29.5 to -27. Granted, the Owls being this large a favorite against anyone is unsettling. Look for turnovers to be the deciding factor as to what team beats the number.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Charlotte
CFB –(357) NEW MEXICO STATE at (358) TROY 7:00 ET W-ESPN
Troy had rather impressive upset at Southern Miss last Saturday and that was on the heels of giving Clemson all they wanted. This has influenced those betting football to lift the Trojans from -17.5 to -21. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country but they can score points which gives the Aggies shot in a flat spot for Troy.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Troy
CFB – (375) MIAMI-O at (376) CINCINNATI 3:30 ET ESPNN
Cincinnati gave it their best shot against Houston and it was not enough and the Bearcats have just as important a contest at home next week versus South Florida. This leaves Cincy in massive doughnut spot against in-state rival Miami-O, who slid from +21 to +17.5. This outcome is totally dependent on Cincinnati’s attitude and the Redhawks are 3-0 ATS of late.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Miami-O
CFB – (381) SOUTH CAROLINA at (382) KENTUCKY 8:00 ET SECN
With South Carolina’s inability to score (15.7 PPG), the Gamecocks have been flipped from -2 to +1.5 at Kentucky. The Wildcats defense has been awful in allowing 43.7 PPG and regular starting QB Drew Barker is listed as ‘doubtful’. Yet again we have contest that could go either way, but will give the nod to Kentucky because they can at least score points.
Betting Trend – 70% backing South Carolina
CFB – (405) TULSA at (406) FRESNO STATE 4:30 ET MWC-V
It was not that many years ago Fresno State was a very stable and good football program, not anymore. Now, even at home the Bulldogs conjure up little respect and they have blown up as home underdogs from +12 to +14.5 against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have a good balanced attack and with Fresno State lost on defense, Tulsa will have a chance to cover.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Tulsa
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 195-170-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 144-115-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 344-306-3