College Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Oct. 4th


Time to move ahead to in college football for early line moves for this week. When you read this, you notice the betting trends and line moves to do all align, suggesting sharp money action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (272-212 of late and recent 58-38 mark), when we post them (15-6 over the weekend), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL info.

CFB – (323) BYU at (324) MICHIGAN STATE  3:30 ET  ABC/ESPN2		With Michigan State having lost two straight, those betting football are counting on the Spartans to rebound and lifted them from -4 to -6. While Michigan State certainly wants to win, not sure that BYU is going to grab their attention and seeing the Cougars have played nothing but close games all season, I will grab these points.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Michigan State

CFB – (327) MARYLAND at (328) PENN STATE 12:00 ET  BTN

What is the state of Penn State football when playing at home, they go from a mere two-point favorite to +1 against Maryland? Granted, the Terrapins are 4-0, but they have not played USC’s schedule. The Terps do have the nation’s No. 7 run offense at 300 YPG and Penn State is allowing 217 PPG. The Nittany Lions are 4-13 ATS in Big Ten action lately.

Betting Trend – 78% backing Maryland

CFB – (339) TEXAS TECH at (340) KANSAS STATE  7:00 ET  ESPNU

With QB Patrick Mahomes status unclear because of injury, the last thing one might expect is Texas Tech would be shrinking road underdog. Yet the Red Raiders are Kansas State. Having watched the Wildcats twice, I believe the concern is K-State keeping up offensively, because they struggle to keep offensive momentum and have fallen two points to -7.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Texas Tech

CFB –(343) PURDUE at (344) ILLINOIS 3:30 ET  BTN

What an indictment on Purdue football that they have gone from -7.5 to -10 at Illinois. The Fighting Illini are again rebuilding with Lovie Smith as coach, yet the Boilermakers are obviously going nowhere with Darrell Hazell as coach, bringing back 16 starters after 50-7 mauling by Maryland. Just keep in mind the visitor has four straight outright in Big Ten action.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Illinois

CFB – (351) BOWLING GREEN at (352) OHIO U. 2:00 ET  W-ESPN

Bowling Green’s only victory is 27-26 over FCS North Dakota and they are 0-5 ATS. Even with this the Falcons have flown from +15 to +12 at Ohio U. Bowling Green does have the history, 7-4 SU and 7-1 ATS at Peden Stadium. Nonetheless, this is not typical Falcons team and with all the turnovers they have been committing, the Bobcats have enough offense, especially at home to get this done.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Ohio U.

CFB – (377) TENNESSEE at (378) TEXAS A&M 3:30 ET CBS

Somebody thinks Tennessee is living on the edge too closely and is about to fall off the cliff. After one improbable comeback after another, the Vols were shifted two points higher to +7. Texas A&M has been 5-0 the last three years, but this team has different feel with veteran QB Trevor Knight at the helm. Does Volunteers magic run out?

Betting Trend – 66% backing Tennesseeio

CFB – (395) LSU at (396) FLORIDA 12:00 ET ESPN

Florida’s defense is good enough to contain the LSU offense, but without QB Luke Del Rio, the Gators offense is sluggish at best. Though Florida is in The Swamp, LSU has been shoved from -1 to -3, with enough believers in Ed Orgeron to keep Tigers offense improving. This line could definitely go backwards later in the week.

Betting Trend – 91% backing LSU


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 216-186-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 148-118-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 369-327-3


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