College Basketball Free Picks: Sun Belt Tourney Battles Should Have Big Numbers

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Along with championship bids up for stake on Tuesday, so is the start of the ACC and Sun Belt tournaments and well will focus on the latter for totals.

Arkansas State (18-11 Under) at South Alabama (17-11-1 Over)

The lid lifter for the Sun Belt tourney is an 8 vs. 9 matchup. Both teams won on their home court with Arkansas State taking the first one 66-65 as a two-point favorite and South Alabama the second contest, 70-62 over the Red Wolves as 4.5-point home favorites.

The totals were both Under’s priced 144 to 145.5 on the closing line. And despite neither total being threatened for a higher score, tonight’s number though lower at 142, is still nowhere close to how these combatants have faced off against each other.

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While oddsmakers definitely look at specific variables in determining any line, they also take the longer view and don’t allow themselves to get caught up in looking at how average bettors see things.

For example, Arkansas State is 9-1 Over after two games with five or fewer steals and 13-2 Over playing with road revenge. Also, the average score of Red Wolves contests away from home this season is 151 total points. Now, it does make sense to be thoughtful of the Jaguars having an 8-7 Under mark at home, yet, that is really not a big cause for concern.

With Arky State 13-18 SU on the season, our research finds when the total is between 140 and 149.5 points and the visitor is off a home loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in the last five years they are 30-10 Over. That is why for college basketball picks we have the Over. The winner plays No.5 Louisiana next.


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