For line moves on Wednesday, we have a mix of afternoon and evening action to ponder. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (188-147, 56.4% of late, including 38-25 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) WASHINGTON at (902) COLORADO 3:10 ET MASN
Though Stephen Strasburg is 15-3 with a 3.07 ERA with only 108 hits allowed in 143 2/3 innings and having a better than 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, he and Washington have slumped from -163 road favorites to under -150 at most sportsbooks. Having lost two straight has those betting baseball uncomfortable, especially since his ERA climbed from 2.63. Nonetheless, Strasburg’s mound opponent Jon Gray (8-6 with a 4.55) has been even worse in his pair of outings, surrendering 16 hits and 15 runs, 14 earned, in only eight innings. Not an easy money line to back, but Washington right-hander is 8-0 on the road and the team is 8-1 in his nine starts.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
MLB – (903) PITTSBURGH at (904) SAN FRANCISCO 3:45 ET RTPT, CSN-BA
With last night’s loss, San Francisco has fallen out of first place in the NL West. With Pittsburgh’s two wins in this series and taking eight of last 11, they are right back in wild card chase and closed the gap on the Giants in that department also. With San Fran backed into corner with bad contract for Matt Cain (4-7, 5.47), they are essentially tied to starting him every fifth day when he’s healthy. Since the start of 2014 campaign, Cain is 8-18 with a 5.05 ERA. This has sent the Giants from -125 faves to -115 or less against Ivan Nova (9-6, 4.68) and the Pirates. My initial reaction was to take Pittsburgh, but when I found San Francisco was 15-2 revenging a one run loss this season, that swayed my opinion.
Betting Trend – 83% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
MLB – (911) N.Y. METS at (912) ARIZONA 9:40 ET SNY, FSAZ
Like usual at Chase Field, in this series there has been no shortage of runs, with 16 in the opener and a dozen last evening. On the year Arizona is 38-21-1 OVER in downtown Phoenix and the pitching matchup of Jon Niese (8-6, 5.20) Zach Godley (3-2, 5.24) has baseball bettors forecasting two third base coaches are going to be arm weary again, lifting the total from 9 to 10. Almost impossible to make a case for anything different to occur, even with such a sizeable jump. The D-Backs can give it up late with the NL’s worst bullpen and the Snakes are 14-2 OVER at home games having lost four of their last five games this season.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (919) KANSAS CITY at (920) DETROIT 7:10 ET FSKC, FSD
About the last thing somebody betting baseball would expect is a road team with a 23-39 away record would be embraced as an underdog. Yet here Kansas City is, down 15 cents from +120 to +105 at Detroit. It would seem unusual circumstances would be in play and are they ever. If Jordan Zimmermann and Mike Pelfrey were not on the DL, Anibal Sanchez (6-12, 6.31) would assuredly be in the Tigers bullpen. The Detroit righty no longer has effective fastball and break on his other pitches, which has diminished the 32-year hurler, who is 2-13 versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Tigers Record) While Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.60) has hardly been reliable, against the Tigers he is 6-0 with a 3.18 ERA in nine career outings, including two victories this season.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 158-147-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 131-110-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 283-265-2