Of all the bracketology reports we have done, this one offers the starkest contrast. If one of these teams makes the NCAA field and the other does not, we will understand what matters most.
The committee has a real differential between the strength of the conference. At the present time, we also have quite a divide in the RPI rankings, just with a flip of who has the stronger club as you will see below.
Both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm from CBS have St. Bonnie’s has one of the – Last Four In, each as 11-seeds. Palm has Texas in the same group, while Lunardi has the Longhorns just outside of the 69-72 grouping. Information from KenPom.com and others are supposed to have more influence this time around and at the moment, that would favor Texas, who is 43rd in his rankings with the Bonnies 66th. Let’s take a further evaluation of both teams.
Conference: Big 12 (1st according to Sagarin Ratings)
Record: 17-12 SU (12-13 ATS)
Current RPI: 51
Best Wins: Texas Tech and Oklahoma (twice)
Worst Losses: None (Just a lot of them)
5Dimes Odds To Win NCAA Tournament: 20,000 to 1
NCAA Tournament History: 35-36
Key Games Remaining: @Kansas and West Virginia
The Longhorns could really strengthen their case by winning their two remaining contests (see Key Games), but that is a tall order for Texas. Injuries and other issues have hurt coach Shaka Smart’s team, which has curtailed their effectiveness, especially on offense where they are 243rd nationally at 71.5 points a game.
The Horns get their due playing in the Big 12 and they will finish the season with a Top 25 schedule that will be one of the toughest. They will also have a chance to improve or falter against the Top 100 in the RPI, as this is how they have performed.
1-25 – 2-5 SU
26-50 – 4-2 SU
51-100 – 1-5 SU
These numbers are rather confusing, which further clouds the Longhorns case. If Texas wins both games this week, they should be in. If these lose both, it would seem they would have to win the Big 12 tournament to be invited.