Here is a look at the latest Line Moves for the Bowl Season thru January 2. Always review the nuggets since they are worth a look.
CFB – 12/29/11 (225) NOTRE DAME vs. (226) FLORIDA STATE 5:30 EST ESPN
The Champs Bowl in Orlando is a sellout with two above average underachievers with brand name recognition doing battle. The total in the contest has caught the bettor’s attention, moving from 48 to 46.5. Florida State’s defense is ranked No.6 nationally and the Seminoles have a poor running game. Notre Dame’s defense is not as good at 37th overall and they also have issues running the ball. The Seminoles are three-point favorites and are 15-4 UNDER in that role.
CFB – 12/29/11 (227) WASHINGTON vs. (228) BAYLOR 9:00 EST ESPN
Robert Griffin III will draw the focus of attention being the Heisman Trophy winner, however the wagering public sees two defenses that are allowing a combined 82.6 points when they play away from home and shifted the total from 77 to 78.5. Griffin leads an explosive Baylor offense that can generate big plays and Washington’s QB Keith Price and RB Chris Polk can also change digits on the scoreboard rapidly. The Bears are 10-2 OVER this season.
CFB – 12/30/11 (229) TULSA vs. (230) BYU 12:00 EST ESPN
BYU has won seven of its last eight games and covered six in a row yet has fallen from a 1.5-point favorite to a Pick against Tulsa. While a Conference USA schedule isn’t going to draw many accolades, The Golden Hurricane did play a more challenging slate than the Cougars and Tulsa’s offensive schemes are not easy to defend. However, BYU has shown an ability to prepare expertly under coach Bronco Mendenhall and is 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more weeks off.
CFB – 12/30/11 (235) IOWA vs. (236) OKLAHOMA 10:00 EST ESPN
After playing in several BCS bowls during the Bob Stoops era, the consensus is a trip to Arizona to play in the Insight Bowl is not going to excite this Sooners squad and they have dropped from 15.5-point favorites to -14 or less. Varied experts will make bets on bowls almost exclusively based on what teams are excited or not to be in a particular postseason contest and Oklahoma fits that profile almost perfectly.
CFB – 12/31/11 (237) TEXAS A&M vs. (238) NORTHWESTERN 12:00 EST ESPN
The Texas A&M offense averages a few biscuits under 40 points per game (39.6) and will take on Northwestern stop troops that ranks 81st in total defense. The Wildcats complete 71.4 percent of their pass attempts and gain 8.4 yards per pass attempt (13th in the country) and faces an Aggies pass defense that ranks 113th versus the forward pass. Comprehending those facts, the total has gone from 65 to 67.
CFB – 12/31/11 (243) CINCINNATI vs. (244) VANDERBILT 3:30 EST ABC
Vanderbilt has not done anything wrong to sink from a field goal favorite to -1.5; it is what might be occurring on the opposite sidelines that matters. Cincinnati starting quarterback Zach Collaros has made a remarkable recovery from a broken ankle and has participated in full contact practices and drills with no ill effects and is expected to play if not start for the Bearcats. This is the sole reason for the line movement.
CFB – 12/31/11 (245) VIRGINIA vs. (246) AUBURN 7:30 EST ESPN
In part because of the considerable power of the SEC, Auburn has been increased as a favorite over a modestly talented Virginia squad. The Tigers were released as one-point favorites and swiftly were jettisoned to a field goal choice. SEC teams are going to get the benefit of the doubt in bowls with lower numbers because of their speed and the competition level they faced. Nonetheless, the Tigers defense permits 29.3 PPG and its offense was ineffectual at season’s end.
CFB – 1/2/12 (249) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (250) GEORGIA 1:00 EST ABC
Michigan State and Georgia both boast offenses that can move the pigskin, but it’s their defenses that allowed them to reach 10 wins in 2011. Even after both squads conceded 42 points in their respective conference championships, they still managed to surrender under 20 points per contest on the season and the total has been adjusted accordingly from 51.5 to 50 points. Just keep in mind Michigan State is 13-4 OVER after one or more straight up losses.
CFB – 1/2/12 (251) NEBRASKA vs. (252) SOUTH CAROLINA (side and total) 1:00 EST ESPN
This is one of the rare bowls having two-way action. Both Nebraska and South Carolina have strong defenses that can contain limited offensive attacks, leading directly to the total crumbling from 48 to 46. Because of the Gamecocks team speed on defense, the belief is they can curtail the Cornhuskers option offense and force Taylor Martinez to be a thrower, which is not his strength. South Carolina is up a point and a half to -2.5.
CFB – 1/2/12 (257) STANFORD vs. (258) OKLAHOMA STATE 8:30 EST ESPN
The betting masses didn’t bite on the high total for the Orange Bowl and forced it downward from 76 to 74. An explanation is Stanford does a good work in pressuring the quarterback, which could lead to errant throws and despite Oklahoma State allowing 446 yards a game, they force turnovers like drinks being served on New Year’s Eve. Okie State is 12-3 UNDER away from Stillwater after the first month of the season.
3Daily Winners Nuggets
CBB ATS Nugget
Villanova is 4-20 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread the last two years.
NBA Totals Nugget
Atlanta is 18-4 UNDER vs. division opponents the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Nugget
Boston is 13-2 after one or more Over’s.