Big Line Moves and Free Picks for May 18th


For Thursday, are focus will be ice and the diamond for line moves and we have quite a few of them. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (116-75, 60.7% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NHL – (9) ANAHEIM at (10) NASHVILLE  8:00 ET   NBCSN

Nashville had outstanding come from behind win in Game 3 and opened as -160 favorite over Anaheim. Those that like to zig and zag are of the opinion that the Ducks might be making noise and shoved the Predators to -145. Going into the series, Nashville has dominated the puck and that has continued, with 46 more shots than Anaheim. My first thought was to back the Ducks, but after thinking about how they are playing and having 11-2 record in home games off a home win this season, the Preds get the call.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Nashville

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Nashville

MLB – (907) MIAMI at (908) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET

Los Angeles is back home after a mediocre 3-4 divisional road trip, but they may find more than just the comforts of home. Miami was just swept by Houston at home and is 3-13 in May. Though Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-5, 4.99 ERA) is not going to generate fear against opposing hitters, neither is the Marlins Edinson Volquez (0-5, 4.41). With the Dodgers 18-3 in home games after allowing one run or less, little wonder they have blown up from -170 to -185 favorites.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Dodgers

Doug’s VPID TakeDodgers win


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MLB – (913) BOSTON at (914) OAKLAND  10:05 ET NESN, CSCA

Rather interesting totals adjustment considering Boston is dipping into the minors to bring up a starting pitcher in this contest. Hector Velazquez is scheduled to make his major league debut Thursday night after posting a 1.55 ERA in Triple-A. He will face Oakland’s Sonny Gray (0-1, 3.78), who after being injured in spring training, has gotten better in each of his three starts. The opening total of 9 is down to 8.5 or even 8 at some sportsbooks. Hard to say how Velazquez might pitch, but Gray is 14-5 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 the last two seasons and is backed by the AL’s 10th ranked bullpen.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (919) TORONTO at (920) ATLANTA  7:35 ET   RSN, SPSO (side and total)

Toronto has been spanked by four runs each time in three consecutive defeats to Atlanta. Those betting baseball are thinking that could end, moving the Blue Jays from -106 to -125 at Atlanta. What is the reason, the Braves Julio Teheran (3-3, 4.08). The right-hander and his mates are 5-17 in home games the past two years. However, before you start doing cartwheels, it is not like Toronto is playing well this week and their starter Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.38) is 5-14 if his club is a loss the last two seasons. (Blue Jays Record) Given these stats, little wonder the total is has sprouted from 7.5 to 8.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Toronto and 54% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Toronto and Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 112-119-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 59-62-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 163-176-8 ATS


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