We went thru the basketball board for both college and pro and here are the biggest line moves for today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (391-319 of late) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (703) BOSTON at (704) ORLANDO 7:05 ET CSN-NE, FSFL
Though Boston has fallen from 4th to 17th in the defensive metric of points allowed per 100 possessions from last year, the total in this Eastern Conference encounter has dropped from 202 to 197. No question Orlando is the driving force in the adjusted total, ranking 28th in field goal percentage (42.6%) and next to last in scoring at 94.6 PPG. With not enough scorers, the Magic play slower and are 25th in shot attempts. My numbers line up with adjusted total and this could go either way.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Over
NBA – (715) SACRAMENTO at (716) DALLAS 8:35 ET CSN-CA, FSSW (side and total)
Both these teams should have a better records than they currently do. Sacramento has a roster of players not interested in defense and Dallas has no offense to speak of. Somehow, this combination has led to the Kings being a growing road favorite from -2 to -4 and the total leaping from 190 to 194.5. Though Sacramento is hardly trustworthy as a road fave, they are off two bad shooting games and should have success against Mavs defense, which in turn leads to higher scoring affair.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Sacramento and 90% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Sacramento covers and Over
CBB – (745) CREIGHTON at (746) NEBRASKA 9:00 ET BTN
Creighton is 8-0 and ranked 10th and travels just under 60 miles on Interstate 80 to play in-state rival Nebraska in Lincoln. This is the Bluejays first true road game and they have slid from -6 to -4 road favorites. The Cornhuskers do not have near the shooting prowess of the counterparts, making 42.5%, compared to Creighton at 54.1% and have to rely more on defending. Even with a slower pace, if you make more shots, that is a big advantage, which makes the Bluejays more appealing at lower price.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Creighton
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Creighton
CBB – (757) CS-FULLERTON at (758) SAN DIEGO 10:00 ET Campusinsiders.com
Both these Left Coast clubs have 3-5 records this season and the sportsbooks sent out San Diego as 3.5-point favorites. After the public looked this over, they helped adjust the college basketball odds to the Toreos at -1. San Diego is only shooting 40.7%, but the Titans are hardly reliable when it comes to betting with a 16-32 ATS mark as underdogs and 2-9 ATS in nonconference road games.
Betting Trend – 85% backing CS- Fullerton
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego covers
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 291-279-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 179-153-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 495-450-5