For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head. For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.
The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Matthew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.
If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. Here are several props I found online.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (-350) – Under 2.5 (+225)
The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (+120) – Under 2.5 ( -160)
Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.
Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 6 (-170) – Under 6 (+130)
This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)
Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.
What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.
What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?
Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)
In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.
What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?
Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)
I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?
What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)
This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.
What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?
Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)
Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.
What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?
Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)
New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.
What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150
Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200
Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don’t be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?
James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175
Clay Matthews (USC) -250
At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.
Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)
In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.
Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)
The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.
Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.
Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.
Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)
This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Dav
is has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.
Patrick White (West Virginia) – Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)
Yes (-150) – No (+110)
Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.