When it comes to betting baseball and assembling parlays, everyone has a different method they prefer to use in order to beat the sportsbooks offerings and generate a profit.
Some like put together a large number of games, seeking the big payday and will live with the losses until they nail one. Others will take underdogs in groups of two or three with a similar intent, low risk with larger reward. My general preference is to take larger favorites and combine them. This philosophy involves taking two teams with a greater win probability against the MLB odds, reducing risk by playing them together rather than individually (-170 loser hurts) and looking to have a quality win and not worried about hitting the home run.
That is not to say I do not take lower odds or underdogs for MLB picks, but if I find heavier favorites with the odds on my side and take say a $100 wager and it makes at least $150, it is bet I will make if the numbers make sense.
Enough philosophy, let’s make choices.
It is starting to appear Johnny Cueto is no longer the ace he used to be at age 30, at least that is he mostly performed with World Series champion Kansas City and largely thus far with San Francisco. However, the Giants already have a true No.1 in Madison Bumgarner and it is Cueto’s job to be a consistent No.2.
Cueto will take (3-1, 3.49 ERA) another pitcher who the year prior also played with the Royals in James Shields (0-3, 4.15), now with San Diego. The Padres right-hander at 34, no longer has the same sink on his pitches and the velocity has dipped, making his best pitch, the changeup, less effective.
San Francisco had been slumping in losing eight of nine with offensive woes, but have won three of four with Giants starting to score again, with 24 runs in this brief stretch. San Fran is hefty -185 favorite, yet has won 14 of 20 at home against San Diego and with total at 7.5, Cueto is 23-7 in home park when the total is 7 to 7.5 the last three seasons. (Team’s Record)
Seriously considered both Boston with David Price or Clayton Kershaw on the run line for Los Angeles, however, found just enough elements to run be off.