All Important Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 9-10


With just one college football game, we starts transitioning towards college basketball for the weekend, plus have Army/Navy update and NBA action for Friday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (399-319 of late and now on 8-0 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.

NBA – (703) MIAMI at (704) CLEVELAND 7:35 ET SUN, FSOH  (side and total)

With Kevin Love’s status up in the air for tonight, the betting markets have pushed Cleveland from -13 to -11.5 and the total is down three points to 207.5. Though LeBron James still has a history with the Heat, not sure his interest is as high as prior years and a lower scoring affair could be in order with Miami’s anemic offense averaging only 96.3 PPG on the road. If the Cavs want to cover the spread they will.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Cleveland and 60% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean on Cleveland and Lean on Under

NBA – (709) DETROIT at (710) MINNESOTA  8:05 ET FS-D, FS-N

Despite a fairly talented young roster and a demanding coach, Minnesota is 6-16 SU and ATS. The Timberwolves are failing in the fourth quarter and losing games with leads. “The good teams are 48-minute teams,” T-Wolves coach Tom Thibodeau said. “We’re still not there…The fourth quarter is different. You have to understand that. The intensity of a fourth quarter is different. Your decision-making is different. We still have to figure that out.” Those betting NBA basketball think they understand this and sent home team from +1 to +3 against Detroit. However, you as the sports bettor should not overlook the fact the Pistons are 4-9 SU and ATS in away games.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota

NBA – (717) PHOENIX at (718) L.A. LAKERS 10:30 ET ESPN

Though this is televised game, not much juice with two lousy teams. The total going up three points to 220.5 is not stunning, as the Lakers are 27th in points allowed at 110.3 per game and the Suns are at 113 per contest. Here is what caught my attention, look at the betting trend. Somebody thinks they know something!

Betting Trend – 94% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

CFB –  (103) ARMY vs. (104) NAVY 3:00 ET CBS  (side and total)		The side and total really dropped in this annual event with the news Navy quarterback Will Worth is done for the season with injuries and running backs Toneo Gulley and Darryl Bonner both left last week with their full status still unknown. Because the side and total were set before the AAC championship game, the precipitous drops on Navy from -10 to -6.5 and total down a whopping six points to 48, over exaggerate how most spreads are determined. These teams have played 10 straight UNDER’s and this should be Army’s best chance for a win since 2001. Update The numbers have continued to diminish, with the total down 47 and spread now at 6. If Army is ever going to win, this is the time.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Navy and 56% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under and Lean Army

CBB – Saturday(551) CINCINNATI at (552) BUTLER 4:30 ET  FS1

Butler suffered their first loss of the season Wednesday to Indiana State 72-71 as 9.5 point road favorites. The Bulldogs were exposed inside by the Sycamores. Cincinnati is again a strong defensive team and loves to take the ball inside to score and could exploit Butler in the paint. However, with the Bulldogs at home, they get the job done.

Anticipated Line – Butler by 3 to 5 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Butler (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday (579) MICHIGAN at (580) UCLA 8:00 ET  ESPN2

If you saw Kentucky this season, how UCLA beat them in Lexington was nothing short of remarkable. What this proved was just how good the Bruins can be and they have more shooters than a packed gun range. To this point, Michigan has not been a great three-point shooting team at 34.9 percent, low for a John Beilein coached team. If the Wolverines keep firing and missing in Pauley Pavilion, this could get ugly.

Anticipated Line – UCLA 8 to10 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UCLA

CBB – Saturday –  (593) NOTRE DAME vs. (594) VILLANOVA  12:00 ET  CBS

Villanova has moved to No.1 in the polls and still has championship pedigree, led by Josh Hart. Notre Dame is unbeaten, but their schedule ranks 310th at Sagarin’s Ratings and four of their nine wins came against teams the oddsmakers did not even want to put a point spread on. Nonetheless, the Fighting Irish have several very good players who have been to two straight Elite 8’s. Both teams lack size and strength in the middle making this an intriguing floor game.

Anticipated Line – Villanova by 3 to 5 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Villanova


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 292-281-3

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 180-153-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 499-455-5


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