We have the Thursday variety pack off all sports for line moves. Turns out there were two bigger line moves in the NHL, both were caused by goalie changes, thus, we will talk about most natural one. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (395-319 of late) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – (101) OAKLAND at (102) KANSAS CITY 8:25 ET NBC
Based on the betting trend, the total sinking from 47.5 to 45.5 appears to be a combination of someone thinking both teams will try and run the ball and the game time temperature to a chilly 21 degrees. In truth, I think this will go back up by game time to 46 or 46.5, but did find this: Road teams after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games and are facing a division opponent, are 49-19 UNDER.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (505) PORTLAND at (506) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET CSN-NW, FSS
Memphis struggled at first when point guard Mike Conley went down, but has regained their bearings in winning their last four (3-1 ATS). The Grizzlies are dealing with injuries at several positions and first-year coach David Fizdale has kept rookies forced to play thinking about offensive execution and playing help defense. With Portland just 12-11 SU, it was eye-opening to see the Blazers moved from +3 to -1.5. Based on the betting trend, the thinking might be Portland’s backcourt could dominate. However, the Blazers defense is so bad (28th in scoring defense), have to go with the home team.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Portland
Doug’s VPID Take – Memphis covers
CBB – (521) UT-ARLINGTON at (522) ST. MARY’S CA 10:00 ET Campusinsiders.com
Coach Randy Bennett has put together a strong program at St. Mary’s and been able to have quite a pipeline of Australian and other foreign players come to Moraga. With the Gaels 6-0 and shooting over 53%, even coach Bennett admits this might be his best team if they keep heading in same direction. Basketball bettors are noticing and the Gaels have been taken from -13 to -15.5 at home against Texas-Arlington. However, Arlington is no slouch and is 13-3 ATS of late in non-conference action and 7-0 ATS after playing three consecutive road games.
Betting Trend – 79% backing St. Mary’s
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UT- Arlington
NHL – (17) CALGARY at (18) ARIZONA 9:05 ET RSN-Flames, FSAZ
Calgary being pushed from -120 money line favorite to -140 plays right into both clubs recent fortunes. The Flames are on fire, winners of four straight and six of eight and during this winning streak have outscored the opposition by 16-6. Arizona is in full rebuilding mode and has one of the youngest teams in the league outside of captain Shane Doan and the Coyotes have looked like prairie dogs in dropping five in a row. Both these streaks will end eventually, just no sure it will be Glendale.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Calgary
Doug’s VPID Take – Calgary wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 291-279-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 179-153-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 497-453-5