Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Dec. 20th

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Time to move ahead on line moves to Thursday action and we another bowl game, college basketball and NFL Week 16. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (466-376-13 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

Bowls – (215) MARSHALL at (216) SOUTH FLORIDA  8:00 ET  ESPN

The total has fallen like pine needles from a Christmas tree that is under watered, down from 54 to 51. After finally being discovered as a fraud and losing their starting QB, USF only tallied 16.2 PPG the final third of the season. Marshall is not a strong offensive team but they will have more success against the Bulls defense while stifling their offense. With USF 12-3 UNDER in home games after a loss by 17 or more points, let’s hop on the bandwagon.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CBB – (603) TEXAS TECH vs. (556) DUKE  7:00 ET  ESPN2 (side and total)

An excellent matchup tonight in The Garden, with heavy betting action. Duke has been on television as much as all those TV commercials for buying cars for Christmas and that has helped push their popularity. The Blue Devils are up two points to -10 over unbeaten Texas Tech. In spite of the two teams a combined 16-5 UNDER, the total has blossomed from 146 to 148.5. My belief is Duke at -8 is a good number, with the Red Raiders playing a weaker schedule, but I won’t go above that and back Texas Tech. As good as these teams are on offense, that is how well they defend, give me the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Duke and 85% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas Tech, Play Under

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NFL – (101) TAMPA BAY at (102) DALLAS  1:00 ET  FOX

I know Dallas was shutout last week and they want to make amends and come out firing, but Tampa Bay’s defense has played better since changing defensive coordinator’s. That makes for a very interesting call on the total rising from 46 to 47.5.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (113) HOUSTON at (114) PHILADELPHIA  1:00 ET  CBS

Houston has been flipped from -1.5 to a +1.5 point underdog at Philadelphia. The Eagles unbelievable upset at the Rams has made for extra seats needed on the Philly bandwagon this week. Besides, the Texans have not played that well since beating Tennessee on Monday night three games ago. Just asking, wasn’t Philadelphia more attractive an underdog in this contest rather than a favorite?

Betting Trend – 60% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (119) CINCINNATI at (120) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS (side and total)

With a victory over Cincinnati, Cleveland will be playing to finish above .500 for the first time since 2007. Yet, from a betting perspective, it is scary as hell to see the Browns go from -7 to -9 against the Bengals. Why? This is the first time Cleveland has been more than a 3.5-point favorite in 71 games and now you would have to cough up more than a touchdown! Think of that and the total sliding from 46 to 44.5. Do that math on the side and total and get back to me.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Cleveland and 67% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (121) L.A. RAMS at (122) ARIZONA 4:05 ET  FOX

Arizona has the worst NFL offense at 13.7 PPG and the Jared Goff the last couple of weeks is playing as he did for Jeff Fisher. In turn, the total has fallen from 47.5 to 44. It is a given the Cardinals will score 13 to 16 points, but how many will the Rams end up at?

Betting Trend – 88% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

 

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 269-271-15 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 113-98-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 390-389-17 ATS

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