Inside The Stats… Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

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By Marc Lawrence  of Playbook.com  Inside The Stats…Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Stats don’t lie.  People who interpret them do.

Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.  This week includes:

  • College Football: Wake Forest
  • NFL: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST

Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all – or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.

Play On ITS teams: Alabama 10-1, Central Florida 9-1, Georgia 10-1, Oklahoma 11-0, Oklahoma State 10-1, South Florida 10-0, and Wisconsin 11-0.

Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-10-1, Rutgers 1-10, and UTEP 1-10.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY

From this week’s MIDWEEK ALERT football newsletter it’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.

The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Seven (the second-half of the season), as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below.  You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.

Positive Game Seven Out Net Stats: East Carolina +104, Georgia Southern +109, and Missouri +154.

Negative Game Seven Out Net Stats: Ball State -118, Georgia Tech -107, Oklahoma State -104, Oregon -104, and Virginia -104.

LEAKING OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory.  Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.

  • College Football: Kansas State 0-8, Wyoming 0-3.

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals 0-5, Washington Redskins 0-5.

SEASON-HIGH, SEASON-LOW

One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.

When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit.  Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.

With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:

Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 4, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.

Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, UCLA 4, UL Lafayette 5, and UL Monroe 5.

On the NFL side of things…

Season-lows: Carolina Panthers 4, Jacksonville Jaguars 6.

Season-highs: Buffalo Bills 0-3, New York Giants 3, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

STAT OF THE WEEK

South Florida has scored 24 or more points in each of its last 27 games. Central Florida is 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS in its last 21 lined games in which it has yielded 24 or more points.

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