It’s another Monster college football weekend and we have all the latest line moves and look-backs coming your way. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (28-21 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Saturday for the NFL.
CFB – Friday – (319) MEMPHIS at (320) TULSA 8:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)
Memphis has been moved from -12 to -14.5 and the total is also on the rise from 77 to 79.5. My sense is Tulsa will show up and since this has climbed over 14 points, the Golden Hurricane offers value. I don’t even know how to evaluate this total and will support public sentiment.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Memphis and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Tulsa and Over
CFB – (337) IOWA STATE at (338) WEST VIRGINIA 3:30 ET ESPN2 *New*
The total in this Big 12 contest has really slipped, down from 64.5 to 60. That would seem to favor Iowa State since they are the better defensive team when it comes to the spread. I do prefer the lower score, with my only trepidation West Virginia’s penchant for turnovers and opposing teams like the Cyclones cashing in on them.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (341) VIRGINIA TECH at (342) MIAMI-FL 8:00 ET ABC *New*
If you base the total slipping three points to 46.5 on the fact these are two stellar ACC defenses, it makes perfect sense. When digging into the numbers, I uncovered Virginia Tech is 10-2 UNDER as a road favorite of three points or less and Miami is 10-2 UNDER with coach Mark Richt after a conference clash.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (345) MARYLAND at (346) RUTGERS 3:30 ET BTN
Nothing screams Big Ten football like Maryland and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights already have a pair of conference victories and are more competitive at 4-1 ATS. The Terrapins have lost top two quarterbacks to injury, yet are coming off win over Indiana and have been moved from a Pick to -2.5. Maryland has better athletes, but good spot for Rutgers to pick up win. Update – Maryland has gone to a solid three-point favorite across the board. The Terps are very inconsistent and do mind backing Rutgers playing at home with improved squad.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Maryland, now 38%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Rutgers
CFB – (361) SOUTHERN MISS at (362) TENNESSEE 7:30 ET SECN
This line move explains how far Tennessee has fallen, as the Vols are down two points to -5.5 against Southern Miss, who is merely 5-3 in Conference USA. Tennessee lost last week in spite of +4 turnover margin at Kentucky and coach Butch Jones will be let go at some point. Still have to think the Vols can take this one. Update – The bus is definitely backing up with Tennessee back to -6.5 or -7. Not a resounding vote for the Vols but a game they cannot take lightly.
Betting Trend – Was 67% backing Southern Miss, now 23%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tennessee
CFB – (365) ARMY at (366) AIR FORCE 3:30 ET CBSSN *New*
In this series the Under is 4-1-1 in recent conflicts, thus, it was not terribly surprising to see the total slide from 60 to 54. The one major difference from the past is this Air Force defense is much slower than previous groups and Army is better overall the last couple seasons and I expect both to reach at least 28 points and will side with the OVER.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFB – (367) WISCONSIN at (368) INDIANA 12:00 ET ABC
Wisconsin went through the motions in dismissing Illinois last week 24-10 in a non-cover. Evidently, I am not the only one to think the Badgers might have more ‘juice’ this week and up their level of play, as they have been elevated from -9 to -11 at Indiana. The Hoosiers are 8-19 ATS against teams that keep pigskin for 32-plus minutes. Update – On Wednesday, the Badgers jumped to -13.5 and they have stayed there in spite of the betting trend. Wisconsin was something to prove to playoff committee in nationally televised title.
Betting Trend – Was 90% backing Wisconsin, 50-50
Doug’s VPID Take – Wisconsin covers
CFB – (385) OREGON at (386) WASHINGTON 10:00 ET FS1
Since Oregon lost QB Justin Hebert, they have not been the same team and those problems are expected to continue at Washington as the Ducks have waddled from +17 to +21. This is big number and with Stanford on deck, not sold we are going to see the Huskies best effort and Oregon slides under number. Update – This was weird line movement as Washington went up four big points on Tuesday and 24 hours later they were back to -17. Though nothing official has been released, I can only surmise Hebert will be back from broken collarbone.
Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Oregon, now 84%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oregon
CFB – (401) BYU at (402) FRESNO STATE 10:45 ET ESPN2 *New total*
BYU won and covered the spread for the first time last week against San Jose State, but football bettors are not convinced that will happen again, shifting the Cougars from +11.5 to +14.5. Fresno State is off stunning home loss to UNLV, ending four-game winning streak. Buy now if you prefer BYU or wait for better number on Bulldogs. Update – As expected a buyback on BYU, now at +12.5 or +13. One massive change is the total heading straight up from 45 to 48. Fresno State should be focused off bad loss and new total look right, causing a couple of leans.
Betting Trend – Was 63% backing Fresno State, now 56% and 71% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Fresno State and Over
CFB – (423) ARIZONA at (424) USC 10:45 ET ESPN *New total*
Those betting football do not trust USC and dropped them from -10 to -7 against Arizona’s uprising. While it is wonderful to see the Wildcats shocking performance this season, this is too good a price on Trojans to pass up with essentially the Pac-12 South title on the line. Watch Sam Darnold torch ‘Zona secondary. Update – Trojans are up a tick to -7.5 and the total blow up from 71 to 76. My in-season systems call for a USC win and cover and the total to be an UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was 55% backing USC, now 59% and 61% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – USC covers and Under
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (27-16-2 ATS) in order: Notre Dame, Purdue, San Diego State, Utah State and Oregon
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (22-23 ATS) in order: K-State/Tex. Tech OVER, Flor./Misso. UNDER, WF/Notre Dame UNDER, Miss./Kenty OVER, and Clemson /N.C. State UNDER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 244-241-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 152-120-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 381-338 -14 ATS