College football is on the docket for this weekend and we have all the latest line moves that have recently occurred and updates on others from earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (16-9run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Saturday
CFB – Friday – (111) FLORIDA STATE at (112) BOSTON COLLEGE 8:00 ET ESPN *New* (side and total)
As the week progressed, Florida State has been pounded hard and has gone from -3.5 to -6.5. In spite of the Seminoles 2-4 record, they still have a great deal of talent and if they can avoid turnovers (which is not guaranteed), they should be good. However, Boston College is on 5-0 ATS run and has put together a rushing game that is approaching 200YPG. I am going to see if I can find a +7 on Boston College on a hunch and I do agree with totaled lifted from 45 to 47.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Florida State and 74% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Boston College and Over
CFB – (129) MIAMI-FL at (130) NORTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET ESPN2
With North Carolina averaging 11 PPG in their past five contests and Miami failing to top 30 points in a trio of outings, the total in this ACC affair has dipped from 53 to 50. What is stalling the Hurricanes is their run defense and not getting the ball back to offense. The Tar Heels figure to be less an issue and the OVER works with Miami a 38-17 winner. Update – This total has done an about face and it has been jettisoned to 54, despite what the betting trend is stating.
Betting Trend – Was 70% backing Under, now 74%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – (155) KANSAS STATE at (156) KANSAS 3:00 ET FS1 *New*
With cold weather expected, Kansas not likely to score much and Kansas State usually punishing the Jayhawks on the gridiron, the total has crumbled from 61.5 to 55. The average score of this Sun Flower State showdown has been 52.5 total points since 1992, thus, mark me down for a low score and going against the betting trend.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (155) MINNESOTA at (156) IOWA 6:30 ET FS1
Big Ten trophy rivalry contest, with Floyd of Rosedale at stake. These are two plodding clubs, both lacking in speed and relying more on power and physicality. Iowa is down two points to -7 and that could add value if you like the Hawkeyes, who are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at Kinnick Stadium versus Minnesota. Update – Midweek, saw a spike to 7.5, but since, over 90 percent of books are back at 7. Wise guys are on Golden Gophers, I disagree.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Iowa, now 45%
Doug’s VPID Take – Iowa covers
CFB – (157) NEW MEXICO at (158) WYOMING 7:30 ET ESPNU
Wyoming’s Josh Allen was supposed to be the best quarterback you did not know about. His performance this season has made him forgettable, though it is not all on him. Bettors realize it and have taken the Cowboys from a Pick to +2 at home against New Mexico. The Lobos running game will be the difference and they are 9-2 ATS off a conference home loss. Update – A buyback on the Lobos, but not completely, with about an even split on New Mexico at -1 or -1.5.
Betting Trend – Was 52% backing New Mexico, now 35%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Mexico
CFB – (159) ARK. STATE at (160) NEW MEX. ST. 8:00 ET ESPN3 *New* (side and total)
Arkansas State has been on a great run in the Sun Belt, while New Mexico State has been as doormat so long the conference gave them their walking papers. Too bad, as the Aggies are pretty good by SBC standards this year and have been lowered from +5.5 to +3 against the Red Wolves. Most would not realize New Mexico State has the No.7 passing offense in the country, which plays a part in the total climbing from 66 to 70. At this price, I will take the pedigree of Arkansas State and support the Over.
Betting Trend – 60% backing New. Mex. State and 70% Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Arkansas State covers, lean Over
CFB – (185) MICHIGAN STATE at (186) NORTHWESTERN 3:30 ET ESPN
Both these Big Ten partners had ugly wins last week and this could be more of the same atheistically. Michigan State has gone from a Pick to -2 in Evanston. The visitor is 8-0 ATS (7-1 SU) in this series and the Spartans are better squad, yet hard to overlook Michigan State is 0-7 ATS as road favorite since 2015. Update – Sparty has been bumped to -2.5. I just think coach Mark Dantonio’s clubs is better in all facets.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Michigan State, now 81%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan State
CFB – (197) FLOR. ATLANTIC at (198) WEST. KENTUCKY 7:00 ET
Florida Atlantic’s demolition of North Texas has caused them to have bandwagon jumpers and the Owls have flown from -4 to -7 at Western Kentucky. This is not the same Hilltoppers’ clubs of the past several years, though this does appear to be a lot of points. With the away team 6-2 ATS, see if FAU falls below seven points before backing. Update – Roughly 70% of sportsbook are down to 6.5. I initial inclination was to back Western Kentucky, however, found two potent in-season systems that say Florida Atlantic.
Betting Trend – Was 84% backing Florida Atlantic, now 91%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida Atlantic
CFB – (207) MISS. STATE at (208) TEXAS A&M 7:15 ET ESPN *New*
This SEC showdown was released as Pick and Mississippi State has been pushed to -2.5. This is statistically justified as the Bulldogs have better numbers on offense and defense and Kevin Sumlin team’s are hardly known for later season play. I might be dead wrong, but I think this Aggies bunch has more gumption than recent squads by hanging in with Alabama and winning tight roadie at Florida and they get the upset.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Texas A&M
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas A&M covers
CFB – (211) UNLV at (212) FRESNO STATE 10:00 ET ATTRM Networks
With UNLV QB Armani Rogers uncertain and Fresno State on fire, the Bulldogs have been pounded by those betting football from -15 to -20.5 in raisin country. Fresno State’s only losses were at Alabama and at Washington. With the Bulldogs the superior team and able to generate turnovers and UNLV coughing up the pigskin, a blowout is likely. Update – Fresno State is a solid -21 at all reporting stations and get the job done.
Betting Trend – Was 75% backing Fresno State, now 91%
Doug’s VPID Take – Fresno State covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (23-14-2 ATS) in order: Fresno State, FAU, Missouri, K-State and Nebraska
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (20-20 ATS) in order: Tenn./KY UNDER, Mich. St./Northw. UNDER, Vandy/South Car. UNDER, Miss. St./Tex. A&M UNDER, and Minn. /Iowa UNDER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 235-239-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 150-116-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 374-321 -14 ATS