It is the jam-packed weekend of college football and we have all kinds of line moves to discuss, both fresh and from the other day. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (276-239) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for NFL.
CFB – Friday – (327) MEMPHIS at (328) CONNECTICUT 7:00 ET ESPN *New*
There are two things we know about Memphis, they can score AND give up a lot of points. That is the driving force for total climbing from 71 to 75. If does not go unnoticed Connecticut is also making a contribution in conceding 46 PPG in their last three outings. I really wanted to take the Under, yet have to pay attention to Memphis being 6-0 OVER when total is 70 or higher.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – (327) CENTRAL FLORIDA at (328) CINCINNATI 8:00 ET ESPNU *New* total
Central Florida’s impressive demolition of Memphis has those betting football’s attention and the Knights have leaped from -14 to -17 over a run of the mill Cincinnati team. The Bearcats used to be money at home, not anymore (1-8 ATS), yet this still feels like a lot points. Either take the points or wait and see if spread come down. Update – Zero movement on the side since Tuesday, but the total has dropped precipitously from 57 to 54. Even though I have a great system on Central Florida, the number appears inflated. I am on board with lower total.
Betting Trend – Was 90% backing Central Florida, now 72% and 91% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati and Play Under
CFB – (331) PENN STATE at (332) NORTHWESTERN 12:00 ET ABC *New*
So why would this Big Ten total be sinking from 55.5 to 51.5 if Penn State has such a prolific offense? Here is the deal, the Nittany Lions offensive line is beat up and is having to shift players around. Quarterback Trace McSorley has been sacked nine times in the past two games and you know Northwestern has studied their weaknesses. The Wildcats offense is hardly dynamic, but for me, this is the low end of the Under spectrum. I have just a nod with the ‘Cats 12-3 UNDER at home the last three seasons. This adjustment wreaks of sharp action by betting trend.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (335) DUKE at (336) VIRGINIA 12:20 ET ACCN
Searched Duke team websites to see if they had QB injury to understand why the Blue Devils were flipped from -2.5 to +2.5 at Virginia. I could not find anything. Duke did not play poorly against excellent Hurricanes squad and the Cavaliers bounced Boise State, yet lost at home to Indiana earlier. Virginia is 9-3 SU hosting the Dukies. Update – About 40 percent of books have backed up to Virginia -2. I have not seen the Cavaliers play, but heard good things about their quarterback, yet I still like Duke on both sides of the ball.
Betting Trend – Was 58% backing Duke, now 49%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Duke
CFB – (327) PITTSBURGH at (328) SYRACUSE 12:30 ET FSN Affiliates *New*
Let’s see, Syracuse has the No.15 ranked pass offense in the country and the Pittsburgh secondary is hot mess waiting to happen, ranked 128th in yards per pass attempt allowed (9.7). With the Panthers seemingly having found their QB, is anyone caught off guard with the total climbing like a monkey in a tree from 60 to 66? Nonetheless, here’s the deal, the Orange with coach Babers are 13-4 UNDER, which includes 8-1 UNDER at home. #gotcha
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (347) MINNESOTA at (348) PURDUE 3:30 ET ESPN2
Purdue has been vibrant and exciting with new coach, while Minnesota looked slow and lost at home to Maryland who started third-string quarterback. The Boilermakers opened at +1 and boiled to -4 home favorites. Would like the number to come down on Purdue, since they are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS at West Lafayette. Update – Rock solid number since Tuesday, which says line is fair. Doesn’t matter, Purdue covers.
Betting Trend – Was 60% on Purdue, now 62%
Doug’s VPID Take – Purdue covers
CFB – (367) AIR FORCE at (368) NAVY 3:30 ET CBSSN
Always a welcome sight when the academies collide and despite the record differentials in the teams, it is the 1-3 Air Force dipping from +10 to +7.5 at undefeated Navy. The Falcons won last year, but that was in Colorado Springs and the Middies are 7-3-1 ATS when the Air Force is in town. Update – About a quarter of the books back to -8 and I would be shocked if this gathers momentum. Anchors Aweigh, my boys, Anchors Aweigh!
Betting Trend – Was 78% backing Navy, now 74%
Doug’s VPID Take – Navy covers
CFB – (385) GEORGIA at (386) VANDERBILT 12:00 ET ESPN
This is fourth straight incredible task for Vanderbilt and third versus a ranked opponent. With Georgia obviously the second-best team in the SEC, the Bulldogs have been bumped up from -14 to -17.5. The biggest concerns for Vandy is scoring on exceptional Georgia defense and stopping Dawgs powerful running attack. The Commodores might be worth a look with 10-2 ATS mark off road loss. Update – Slight buyback to -17 on Georgia and given how they have played and this being ‘Dores club playing fourth nasty contest, the Dawgs have my support.
Betting Trend – Was 89% backing Georgia, now 79%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Georgia
CFB – (403) WISCONSIN at (404) NEBRASKA 8:00 ET BTN *New* (side and total)
Nebraska finally looked like Nebraska last week, however, beating Illinois is not a true test. That comes this week with Wisconsin in Lincoln and they have the support of enough football bettors to be lowered from +13 to +10.5. Both defenses have played well of late and have offenses with injured players that are out and total has sunk from 49 to 45.5. Difficult to find fault with the Badgers 7-0 ATS in a road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 and the Huskers at 9-2 UNDER against conference opponents the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 50-50 on side and 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wisconsin, Play Under
CFB – (417) MIAMI-FL. at (418) FLORIDA STATE 3:30 ET ESPN
Miami has been shoved from a Pick to -3 and it obvious as to why. The Hurricanes when watching both teams have better players, stronger O-Line and more offensive versatility. Fully expect Florida State to give a very strong effort, however, at this price Miami still is a nice value for Sunshine State showdown. Update – Roughly 30% of betting outlets now at 2.5, with rest holding steady. As stated, Hurricanes are better team
Betting Trend – Was 84% backing Miami, now 68%
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (16-8-1 ATS) in order: Auburn, Arkansas, Utah, Wash. State and Ball State
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (12-13 ATS) in order: K-State/Texas Under, Alab./Tex. A&M OVER, ISU/Okla. OVER, Maryl./Ohio St. OVER, and We. KY/UTEP UNDER
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 206-215-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 144-110-4 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 335-293-14 ATS