Big Final 4 weekend and we uncovered line moves in one of the games. Besides that, we have a trio for tonight in the NBA and CIT championship. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (47-25-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NBA - (519) SAN ANTONIO at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET ESPN
Both these NBA teams have been playing well of late, but those betting basketball seem to have more faith in San Antonio, moving them up from -1 to -3 at Oklahoma City. Both squads are fighting for playoff positioning in the Western Conference, but a victory means more to the Thunder, who is trying to move up to fourth position (currently 6th) to have home court edge in the first round. Oklahoma City won and covered 22 days versus the Spurs in same situation and should have a shot to do so again being 25-11 ATS at home.
Betting Trend – 82% backing San Antonio
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oklahoma City
NBA – (521) HOUSTON at (522) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET ESPN
If any team appears to be peaking with the playoffs coming soon, it is Golden State who has won nine in a row (7-2 ATS) and been playing stellar defense. Known more for flashy offense than defense, the Warriors have allowed just 96.4 PPG during this streak and has been blowing out opposing teams by an average of 15.8 PPG. Golden State just beat Houston Tuesday on the road and has been moved from -6.5 to -9, with the Rockets having lost past two tilts. Houston might be 10-2 ATS as a road underdog this season, but the way Golden State is playing, hard to bet against them at home.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Golden State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Golden State
CBB – (525) ST. PETER’S at (526) TEXAS A&M C.C. 9:00 ET CBSSN
It is the championship game of the CIT and other than basketball bettors, the players, coaches and their family members, not sure who cares about this matchup. As stated, those making bets do and St. Peter’s stingy defense (60.8 PPG) and spread road record (14-1 ATS) is attracting enough attention to bump them up from -1.5 to -4.5. Let’s not assume Texas A&M C.C. is dead in the water, as they are 16-1 SU at home and they have held five of their last six tournament opponents to under 42.5 percent shooting and they score 81.9 PPG on their own floor. Not strong play, but to me the home team with this many points is worth consideration.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Texas A&M C.C.
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Texas A&M C.C.
CBB – Saturday - (813) OREGON vs. (814) NORTH CAROLINA 8:35 ET CBS
In the second game of the Final Four, the total is blossoming like a flower on a cactus in the Phoenix area, up from 149 to 152. By style of play this should be a higher scoring affair, yet if Oregon can shutdown Kansas and North Carolina can slow Kentucky, both defenses are more than capable of containing the other and this could be a lower scoring than expected. Toss in the Ducks are 7-1 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season and the Tar Heels are 8-2 UNDER after three straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more, nice value presently on lower score.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 73-88-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 34-41-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 108-129-3 ATS