Big sports weekend and we have all the line moves and anticipated ones for the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday!
NBA - (715) DETROIT at (716) UTAH 10:35 ESPN
With Utah now completely healthy and having a favorable schedule ahead, they could assemble a winning streak after impressive win over Cleveland Tuesday. Bettors are very assured Utah will pick up another ‘W’, having taken the Jazz from -8.5 to -11 over Detroit. The opening number looked accurate, thus, this seems a bit high, even with the Pistons 8-14 SU and ATS on the road. Cannot hand out this many points on Utah who is .500 against the number at home (9-9-2 ATS).
Betting Trend – 90% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Detroit
NFL – Saturday – (301) SEATTLE at (302) ATLANTA 4:35 ET FOX
Once this matchup was finalized, a segment of football bettors took Atlanta from -3.5 to -4.5 in game against Seattle. They are counting on Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense to come out on like they have all year and take advantage of a Seahawks defense which is just not the same without safety Earl Thomas.
With this line of thinking, it matches the total being lifted from 49.5 to 51, with the belief Atlanta will score and it is expected Russell Wilson will generate points against a defense permitting 27.4 points per game playing at home.
The Over obviously has valid reasoning as the Dirty Birds were 8-0 OVER at the Georgia Dome this season. A little less sold on Atlanta as a favorite, with a 3-11 ATS mark when favored by a touchdown or less since 2014. Update - The Falcons have flown even higher to -5, with total holding steady at 51. In spite Atlanta uprising, betting trend is not seeing that way.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Atlanta and 65% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Seattle and Play Over
NFL – Saturday – (303) HOUSTON at (304) NEW ENGLAND 8:15 ET CBS
New England opened as the largest playoff favorite at -16 over Houston in 18 years. While Texans coach Bill O’Brien has suggested he will not worry about such a thing, with his only real concern “what happens between the lines”. That sounds good coach but the fact remains, today’s modern very much concerns itself about “respect” or in this case the lack of it and O’Brien or his coaches would be buffoons not to use it as motivation.
At first glance, even those betting football are thinking this is rather high, considering Houston finished first in total defense and a slight regression has occurred to 15.5.
The total of 44.5 has also been walked back a little to 44, with many wondering how team like Houston, who averages just 14.7 PPG on the road, will score much more than that versus a New England defense allowing 15.6 PPG. Update - Though 15.5 is the consensus number, there were when we went to post this article, 13′s and 17′s also. The total has come back to starting point of 44.5.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under and 68% on New England
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under and slight lean on Houston
CBB – Saturday - (513) DUKE at (514) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ESPN
Lots of questions about this early ACC clash. Without Amile Jefferson, Duke has no rim protector and Louisville will go to the basket like Florida State did the other night. That could mean more zone from the Blue Devils, with Louisville outside shooting like the McDonald’s McDLT, hot and cold. No lack of talent on the floor, but with the Cardinals defense, who will Grayson Allen punch, kick or elbow?
Anticipated Line – Louisville by 4 to 6 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisville (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday - (563) XAVIER at (564) BUTLER 2:00 ET FS1
A likely key to this game is the play of Xavier’s Edmund Sumner and Butler’s Kelan Martin. When these guys don’t shoot well, there team’s falter. Each Big East squad comes in off humbling loss. Who gets off the deck quicker is likely winner.
Anticipated Line – Butler by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Butler
CBB – Saturday - (565) FLORIDA STATE at (566) NORTH CAROLINA 2:00 ET ESPN
Florida State is legitimately 12 deep and can play fast or slow and go big or small. For this ACC encounter, big and fast will be necessary. Talent-wise, North Carolina has all the weapons to win and cover and knock the Seminoles off, however, this Tar Heels team only plays defense in stretches, which Florida State can take advantage off.
Anticipated Line – North Carolina 7 to 9 points
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Florida State
CBB – Saturday - (607) BAYLOR at (608) KANSAS STATE 4:30 ET ESPNU
For starters, still No.1 Baylor will be thrilled Kansas State does not play defense like West Virginia. The Bears had as many turnovers as Pillsbury puts out in two hour period. This is a game Baylor should win, but they have failed to cover three straight and K-State is 9-0 (2-2-1 ATS) at home. Bears offense finds enough answers.
Anticipated Line – Baylor Pick to -2
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baylor
CBB – Saturday - (671) ST. MARY’S at (672) GONZAGA 10:00 ET ESPN2
Realistically, best game of the day. These are two of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, these teams truly cannot stand each other, thus, the intensity will be off the charts and both have bigger designs than a WCC title this year. Should be awesome affair, but edge goes to Gonzaga being home and having beaten better teams.
Anticipated Line – Gonzaga by 6 to 8 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Gonzaga
NFL – (305) PITTSBURGH at (306) KANSAS CITY 1:05 ET NBC
Those placing football bets are wagering on what they are seeing. After Pittsburgh dispatched of Miami, later after the game, Ben Roethlisberger was seen riding in a cart in a boot. He downplayed the significance and had MRI on Monday, which showed not damage and declared himself “good to go” against Kansas City.
Bettors were less sure and moved the Steelers from -1 to +2 against the Chiefs. That was not the only reason for the rather large shift, as Kansas City was walloped by Pittsburgh 43-14 back in October on the road and for those thinking about revenge, this also plays in the process. However, the Steelers have obvious edges in the trenches on both sides of the ball and Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in the postseason.
The total has also taken a good-sized tumble, now at 44, after opening at 46.5. If you liked the idea of lower score, most of the value has dried up, even with Pittsburgh 14-4 UNDER on the road and 9-2 UNDER as an underdog. Update - On Thursday, we began to see Kansas City slipping a little to -1.5 and on Friday, close to half the books checked were at -1. With rain in the forecast, the total is dipping further, with 43 and 43.5 popping up.
Betting Trend – 50-50 on sides and 67% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Leans Pittsburgh and Under
NFL – (307) GREEN BAY at (308) DALLAS 4:40 ET FOX
After Green Bay dismantled the Giants, they were sent out as four-point underdogs to Dallas. Once the news was reported Jordy Nelson has at least two broken ribs, the Packers went to +5 before most sportsbooks settled at +4.5 by Tuesday morning
Look for Dallas to go back to at least -5, once everyone realizes the impact of Nelson’s presumed loss or severe limitations if reports are true. Though receiver Geronimo Allison has performed well the last few weeks, he’s not going to draw double coverage like Nelson would in many situations, which will allow Dallas to hone in on Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. No doubt Aaron Rodgers has been otherworldly, but taking away individual who has been such a key to their success is important.
Next is the matter of Green Bay defense, which has held up despite a plethora of injuries, taking on rested Dallas offense and its weapons all over the field, who was bludgeoned for 30 points by Cowboys at Lambeau Field back in October. Update - As mentioned earlier in the week, more books are listing Dallas at -5, with Nelson now ‘out’. Green Bay can survive one game without Nelson if Rodgers remains hot, but will the defense hold up against the run?
Betting Trend – 66% backing Green Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Dallas
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 53-42 (since 12/01/16)
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 31-26 (since 12/01/16)
Line Movement Direction Record – 83-69 (since 12/01/16)