Weekend Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 3-4

February 3, 2017

For line moves, we will look at two line adjustments in the NBA tonight, along with five big games on the college board on Saturday. Normally we would also include the Saturday night NBA televised contest, but the Cavaliers and Knicks is not an important matchup. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, to see what we are thinking. See you back here for Super Bowl Sunday.

NBA - (851) TORONTO at (852) ORLANDO 7:05 ET  TSN, FSFL

The absence of  All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan has taken a toll on the Toronto offense, as he has missed five of their last six games and the Raptors are a sour 2-7 (3-6 ATS) of late. This is reflected in points per 100 possessions, where Toronto is down 8.7 in this category. The total has tumbled with it, down from 211 to 209 or lower depending on the sportsbook. The worrisome aspect to backing this total with DeRozan an uncertainty to play, is the fact Orlando is permitting 111.3 PPG in their last six contests. With the Raptors 14-0 OVER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of last game this season, too good to pass up.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NBA – (857) MEMPHIS at (858)  OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET  FSSO, FSOK

With these teams trending in different directions, enough influence is flowing towards the hotter squad. Memphis has won and covered three straight, while Oklahoma City has gone the opposite direction in losing three in a row and failing to beat them spread in any of them. With this the Grizzlies have been flipped from +1.5 to -1 over the Thunder, who has failed to shoot over 38 percent in those trio of defeats. The SU winner has covered the last eight matchups and seven times that has been the home team. Just the slightest of leans with OKC to end losing streak.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Oklahoma City

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CBB – Saturday - (525) PURDUE at (526) MARYLAND 12:00 ET  ESPN

Excellent Big Ten battle and one Purdue has to win to keep hopes alive of being regular season champions. The Boilermakers are only 1-4 ATS when they leave home and if this game is as close as anticipated, there is arguably no better team in the last five minutes of a close contest than Maryland. Just watching the Boilers Caleb Swanigan and the Terps Melo Trimble makes this worth tuning in.

Anticipated Line – Maryland Pick to 2 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Maryland covers (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday - (663) KENTUCKY at (664) FLORIDA 8:15 ET  ESPN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		After a brilliant start, Kentucky has been laboring, making too many casual turnovers and not getting enough production in the paint and defensively, with opponents driving to the rim and scoring or dishing for easy buckets. The Wildcats are capable of greater things, but Florida is real good on defense (Jay Bilas speak) and if they make shots, they are tough out.

Anticipated Line – Florida by 2 to 4 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida

CBB – Saturday - (671) ILLINOIS STATE at (672) WICHITA STATE  8:00 ET  ESPN2

Two best clubs in the Missouri Valley and Illinois State is 11-0 (7-4 ATS) in league play. Wichita State’s only conference setback was at the Redbirds building, as they made a ton of miscues. This should be another outstanding contest and quite likely the second of three meetings this season. The Shockers have something to prove.

Anticipated Line – Wichita State 9 to 11 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wichita State

CBB – Saturday  - (685) NOTRE DAME at (686) NORTH CAROLINA 6:00 ET  ESPN

Besides losing four of five, Notre Dame’s team body language is terrible, leaving those like myself to wonder if there is chemistry conundrum. North Carolina has all the pieces to win another national championship, but lacks the needed nastiness, just like we saw last Saturday when the Tar Heels were no-shows in Miami. Too much size and speed for North Carolina in this one.

Anticipated Line – North Carolina by 8 to 10 points

Doug’s VPID Take – North Carolina

CBB – Saturday  - (697) ARIZONA at (698) OREGON  4:00 ET  ESPN

Arizona almost got caught looking ahead, beating Arizona State at home 71-70 as 17-point favorites Thursday. Both these Pac-12 clubs create matchup dilemmas and are extremely well-coached. Each dealt with injuries early and is playing excellent basketball right now. Here is your choice, backing the Wildcats, who are 6-0 SU and ATS in true road games or Ducks flock that has not lost a game in Eugene in almost 25 months?

Anticipated Line – Oregon +1  to -1 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 31-25 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 14-16-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 43-43-1 ATS

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