We are back for weekend edition of line moves and have it covered in all aspects, with the NBA, college basketball and the NHL. The only thing we don’t have coverage of is Sunday, because frankly, other than the Oscars, not much of real interest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (38-23 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NBA – (841) MEMPHIS at (842) INDIANA 7:05 ET FSSE, FSMW
Memphis and Indiana have traded being favorites most of Friday morning but one element that has not changed is the total has stayed at 204 after opening at 207. It would appear the lower number is an indication that the Grizzlies will control the pace and avoid going up and down with the Pacers. But here is where it gets weird. Memphis is 21-8 OVER on the road and is 8-1 OVER away when the line is +3 to -3 this season, with average total score over 212. Conversely, Indiana is 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, with average total score a smidge over 202. Now what do you do?
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NBA – (853) PHOENIX at (854) CHICAGO 8:05 ET FSAZ, WGN
Sharps and the public alike jumped on total of 215.5 and pushed it all the way to 219, before it has settled at 218 or 218.5 depending on the sportsbook. Phoenix is one of the worst road defensive teams, permitting 113.2 PPG (29th) and is 28th in field goal percentage defense and dead last in three-point FGP defense. Chicago made roster moves, but is no better a team and has even less scoring potential. I’m grabbing the UNDER at 218.5 and hope the Suns are not wearing matador warm-ups before the game.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – Saturday - (541) FLORIDA at (542) KENTUCKY 2:00 ET CBS
Regular season title likely to be decided here. Kentucky has played better defense of late, but Florida is more stable in facets and as long as they don’t allow the Wildcats to get out in transition, they should make this a very close contest. Like the Gators, but this is where the loss of injured 6-foot-11 center John Egbunu could matter.
Anticipated Line – Kentucky by 3 to 5 points
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Kentucky (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday - (629) PURDUE at (630) Michigan 4:00 ET ESPN2
With Wisconsin losing at Ohio State Thursday, the Big Ten regular season title is there for the taking for Purdue. The Boilermakers have been the most consistent team in the league all year and have six in a row (4-1-1 ATS), but faces a dangerous Michigan club, who is on the bubble and really shoots well in Ann Arbor.
Anticipated Line – Purdue by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Purdue
CBB – Saturday - (667) BYU at (668) GONZAGA 10:15 ET ESPN2
Gonzaga looks to complete perfect regular season and with how the season as played out, the Zags have been great all season and has the tools to win the national championship. BYU lacks the foot speed and quickness to hang with Bulldogs on Senior Day, but the national focus and pressure starts to mount on No.1 Gonzaga going forward.
Anticipated Line – Gonzaga by 16 to 18 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Gonzaga
CBB – Saturday - (669) UCLA at (670) ARIZONA 8:15 ET ESPN
Arizona all but wraps the Pac-12 regular season crown with a victory. The Wildcats are only 3-6 ATS since defeating UCLA 96-85 last month and they will find a Bruins club who is paying closer attention to details like defense this time around. This should outstanding 94-foot battle.
Anticipated Line – Arizona Pick to 2 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
NHL – Saturday - (11) PHILADELPHIA at (12) PITTSBURGH 8:05 ET NBC
Though Pittsburgh is losing defensemen like J.C. Penny is closing stores, they are still nicely positioned to defend their Stanley Cup title. It is hard to imagine a team assembles a 10-game winning streak, yet as of right now Philadelphia would miss the playoffs. Take away the one hot stretch, the Flyers are 18-32 SU in all other games.
Anticipated Line – Pittsburgh -240 to -260
Doug’s VPID Take - Pittsburgh wins
NBA – Saturday - (511) CHICAGO at (844) CLEVELAND 8:35 ET ABC
Fred Hoiberg has not turned out to be the NBA coach many thought he would be and Chicago is caught in postseason purgatory, probably just barely good enough to get in but not a threat to accomplish anything. Cleveland will be more rested with the Bulls having played on Friday and the Cavs cover if they want to.
Anticipated Line – Cleveland by 10 to 12 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 45-47 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 20-28-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 63-73-1 ATS