We are thinned out on line moves with no regular season NBA games this weekend, which means a lot of college basketball, which is good by us. On Sunday, we also have the big NHL contest on NBC to talk about. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (26-14 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
CBB - (851) VALPARAISO at (852) OAKLAND U. 7:00 ET ESPN2
Valparaiso can all but wrap up another Horizon League crown tonight when visiting Oakland U. The Golden Grizzlies have handed Valpo one of their two conference losses, but the bettor’s attention has been on the total, which has blown up from 142.5 to 147. Offensively, both clubs are capable of big nights, but both are holding opposing teams under 70 PPG. With totals a recent development in this matchups, the UNDER is 5-3. When digging into the numbers, uncovered the Crusaders are 7-0 UNDER as a road underdog or pick and Oakland is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more this season.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under
CBB – (863) VCU at (864) RICHMOND 9:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)
Richmond still has a slim chance to catch VCU in the A-10, making tonight a – must win – to keep that hope alive. Those betting basketball are not of the opinion the Spiders will accomplish this and moved them from +3.5 to +5.5. After a strong start in conference play, Richmond is just 4-4 (5-3 ATS) recently, while VCU has won seven straight (3-3-1 ATS). While the Spiders are tempting, they are 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss the last two years. The total has also dipped from 146.5 to 144, but we have strong trends on both teams to have us thinking an OVER.
Betting Trend – 70% backing VCU and 93% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans VCU and Over
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CBB – Saturday - (505) VIRGINIA at (506) NORTH CAROLINA 8:15 ET ESPN
This would seem to be a ripe spot for a Virginia cover, yet they do not have enough scorers, which is why they have lost last two contests and three in a row on the road. This sets up to be the difference in this ACC confrontation and it does not hurt North Carolina is 12-0 and 8-3 ATS at the Dean Dome, winning by more than 24 PPG.
Anticipated Line – North Carolina by 4 to 6 points
Doug’s VPID Take – North Carolina covers (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday - (519) KANSAS at (520) BAYLOR 1:00 ET CBS
Baylor has to win to have a chance to catch Kansas in the Big 12. The Jayhawks had a miraculous comeback Monday at home to somehow defeated West Virginia and will have to add more energy to win this game on the road. Three of Baylor’s losses have come this month and in each case there have been extended lapses which have led to the disappointment. The Jayhawks are used to close games by now and come up big when necessary.
Anticipated Line – Baylor +1 to -1
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas
CBB – Saturday - (611) SMU at (612) HOUSTON 6:00 ET ESPN2
SMU is tied for first place with Cincinnati in the AAC and almost laid the proverbial egg after beating the Bearcats last Sunday and knocking off Tulane by only five as 24-point home favorites. Houston was manhandled by the Ponies a month ago 85-64, but turned that loss into a positive with four consecutive victories. If the Cougars can solve Mustangs stingy defense, they would have a shot.
Anticipated Line – SMU by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean SMU
CBB – Saturday - (657) USC at (658) UCLA 10:00 ET PAC-12N
USC beat UCLA three times last year and again this season. The Trojans defensive length has bothered the Bruins, especially when they played zone and they have been able to not only contest deep shots, but taken away dribble penetration. Despite UCLA’s outstanding record, they are pathetic 3-10 ATS in Pac-12 play. If the Bruins are double digit favorites as expected, unless they play near perfect, the Men of Troy can cover.
Anticipated Line – UCLA 9 to 11 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean USC
NHL – Sunday - (1) WASHINGTON at (2) N.Y. RANGERS 12:35 ET NBC
Washington has been the best team in the NHL virtually all season and enters the weekend on a six-game winning streak. We will not know the results from their game Saturday afternoon at Detroit, however, we do know the Rangers will be well-rested having played on Thursday. New York won only prior conflict at Washington, but that was back in October. If Caps lose Saturday, like their chances Sunday, if not, take the Blueshirts.
Anticipated Line – Washington -105 to -115
Doug’s VPID Take – Read situational play
CBB – Sunday - (843) MARYLAND at (844) WISCONSIN 1:00 ET CBS
This would be hard call anyway, but with unknown status of Wisconsin’s Bronson Koenig, this is even tougher. The Badgers offense is laboring and needs someone to take charge after losing consecutive games. Maryland has the ‘best team’ in the Big Ten, if not the most talented, and Melo Trimble gives them a chance at crunch time, which explains the Terps 10-1 and 10-0-1 ATS record as underdogs.
Anticipated Line – Wisconsin by 5 to 7 points
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Maryland
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 41-42 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 17-24-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 55-65-1 ATS