Another big weekend of sports betting ahead and we have line moves and anticipated lines and reasoning for all the biggest games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (11-2 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here for Tuesday.
NBA – (851) MIAMI at (852) BROOKLYN 7:35 ET SUN, YES
By now everyone should be aware of Miami’s incredible run of not only 12-game winning streak, but a dozen spread covers to go with it. What has gotten a little lost in all this is how well the Heat’s offense has played and while they are 7-5 UNDER in this stretch, they are facing the worst scoring defense in the NBA in Brooklyn. With this, the total has climbed from 212 to 215. I will gladly take the UNDER with Miami’s defense and know they are 9-1 UNDER playing against a team with a win percentage of 25% or less.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (869) DAYTON at (870) RHODE ISLAND 7:00 ET ESPN2
Two of the Top 4 teams in A-10 will square off and those betting basketball are fixated on the total, lifting it two points to 140 in this televised tilt. Dayton has always been a fine defense team, but like most are not nearly as tough in the road uniforms. Rhode Island has similar qualities, however, there’s is on the offensive side where their shooting eye improves at home. With the Rams a three-point favorite and the Flyers 6-0 OVER on the road when the line is +3 to -3, we’ll go with the move.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – Saturday - (541) FLORIDA STATE at (542) NOTRE DAME 6:00 ET ESPN
After a dreary stretch, Florida State has won and covered three in a row this month and has the athleticism and depth to defeat Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish just ended four-game losing streak with win over Wake Forest on Tuesday, but will need great shooting and turnovers that convert to points at home to quell the Seminoles.
Anticipated Line – Florida State by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida State (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday - (557) VILLANOVA at (558) XAVIER 2:30 ET FOX
No question Xavier misses Edmund Sumner, but others are stepping up their game, which is how the Musketeers have rattled off four straight wins (1-3 ATS). Xavier will be underdogs to Villanova and will have to play better defense in the half court than what they did in Philadelphia last month when they blown out by 25.
Anticipated Line – Villanova by 3 to 5 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Villanova covers
CBB – Saturday - (679) GONZAGA at (680) ST. MARY’S 8:15 ET ESPNMandatory Credit – James Snook/USA TODAY Sports
ESPN had to do Google maps to determine exactly where Moraga is for this prime time battle. Gonzaga’s is the nation’s top rated team and they have not shown a noticeable weakness all year in being 25-0 and just as incredible 17-4-1 ATS. St. Mary’s defense can be stifling, allowing just 55.9 PPG. Nevertheless, will they be able to avoid lengthy scoring droughts to pull the upset or at least cover the number?
Anticipated Line – Gonzaga by 7 to 9 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Mary’s
CBB – Saturday - (685) OREGON at (686) USC 10:30 ET PAC-12N
After quick start, USC went 2-10 ATS and all four of their losses came in the period. The Trojans has rebooted with a 4-0 SU and ATS run and takes on Oregon at home, after the Ducks could not close out UCLA with a 19-point lead on Thursday. USC lost by 23 at Eugene for their initial loss of the season and will try and deploy zone defense which held the Bruins to 76 points 17 days ago.
Anticipated Line – Oregon by 2 to 4 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean USC
NBA – Saturday - (509) GOLDEN STATE at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:30 ET ABC
Tough deal for Golden State having to play at Memphis on Friday. The story line will be Kevin Durant back in Oklahoma City and both teams should be very ready to play. If our line is correct, have to consider the Warriors are 8-2 and 3-7 ATS playing without rest, winning by 5.3 PPG this season.
Anticipated Line – Golden State by 8 to 10 points
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Oklahoma City
CBB – Sunday - (845) CINCINNATI at (846) SMU 4:00 ET ESPN
Massive contest in the AAC, with SMU trying to knock off Cincinnati and tie them for first place. The last game was a 66-64 thriller in Cincy and little reason to think this will not be more of the same. However, the Mustangs enter with 14-0 and 8-1 ATS home record and if the shots start falling, they can cover.
Anticipated Line – SMU by 6 to 8 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean SMU
NHL – Sunday - (53) DETROIT at (54) MINNESOTA 3:05 ET NBC
First place Minnesota has won seven of 10 and has the second-most points in the NHL. Detroit is in serious danger of missing the playoffs since 1991, a span of 25 years. Playing in the Twin Cities will not help the Red Wings.
Anticipated Line – Minnesota -200 to -220 ML
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 35-34 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 16-20-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 49-52-1 ATS