Along with baseball line moves for today, we also have a sliding total in football in the Keystone State. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (190-149, 56% of late, including 40-27 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFLX – (401) PHILADELPHIA at (402) PITTSBURGH 7:00 ET NFLN
Maybe the sportsbooks thought Ben Roethlisberger would see action or rookie Carson Wentz would be able to comeback when setting total at 41. But with both quarterbacks officially out of action, the total plummeted 38. That is contrarian to the history of the series, which is 9-4 OVER in the last 13 meetings and 5-2 OVER when they play in the Steel City. Though it is a meaningless matchup, these Pennsylvania partners like to get after it and I’ll stick with original thought process from the books and say the final score will end in the 40′s.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (953) L.A. DODGERS at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET SNLA, TCN
With the Los Angeles starting pitching a complete mess, having to find warm bodies to replace replacements, let alone expected starters, the Dodgers offense has upped it game since the All-Star and helped lift L.A. into first place. Los Angeles has pounded out nine or more hits in nine of their past dozen game opportunities and has 25 base-knocks in the two contests in Philly. With manager Dave Roberts club smoldering, the total was upped from 8.5 to 9. With the Dodgers 15-3 OVER after batting .315 or better over a five-game span the last three seasons, this makes sense to me.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
MLB – (965) HOUSTON at (966) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET RTSW, MASN2
After being one of the best home bets in the AL all season, Baltimore dropped a pair to Boston the last two nights and went from first to third in tight race in the AL East. The Orioles will look to regroup against Houston, who has also fallen to third place in their division, having lost four in a row. The money trail is flowing to Baltimore, up from -110 to -125 in the opener of four-game series. Though Kevin Guasman is only 3-10 (4.04 ERA), he owns a 2.39 ERA at Camden Yards and his teammates have won five of his eight starts. While we are big fans of the Astros Joe Musgrave (1-0, 1.47) to become a star, the O’s are 14-3 at home after a thumping by six or more runs.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Baltimore
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore
MLB – (969) MINNESOTA at (970) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FSNO, FSKC
Kansas City is not going to return to World Series for a third consecutive year, but they are not going down without a fight either. Having won nine of 11, the Royals are back to .500 and take on division rival Minnesota. In spite of their success, K.C. has dropped from -120 favorites to a Pick (-105). Offhand, nothing about different players not being on Ned Yost’s lineup card, however, we do find the Royals have lost Dillon Gee’s (4-6, 4.78) last five starts, while Minnesota ended up in victory lane in Tyler Duffey’s (8-8, 5.71) past three starts. In spite of Duffey’s puffy ERA, he and the Twins are 14-3 versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season since last year.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 158-148-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 132-112-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 286-266-2