The Biggest Line Moves and Free Picks for Nov. 3rd

November 3, 2016

The world will never be quite the same now that the Cubs are World Series champions, but the drum beat marches on for bettors and we have all the latest line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (325-260 of late and recent 110-86 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL - (307) ATLANTA at (308) TAMPA BAY 8:25 ET  NFLN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comAfter opening with the Falcons at -3, by Tuesday afternoon the Dirty Birds flew to -3.5 and been going between there and up to -4.5 depending on the sportsbook. At the last look Atlanta was at -4 and having the more consistent offensive team backed with Tampa Bay a little more up and down defensively, I will back the Birds on the road.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta covers

CFB - (309) BUFFALO U. at (310) OHIO U. 6:00 ET  CBSSN

Before holding a flat Toledo team to 20 points, Buffalo had given 38.5 PPG in their last four outings. Though Ohio U. is not a dynamic offensive team, they are efficient and football bettors are counting on the Bulls to return to normal and lifted the total from 48.5 to 51.5. While you cannot ignore Buffalo is 6-0 OVER on the road the total is between 49.5 and 56, the Bobcats are 7-1 UNDER this season, which makes me skittish.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under

CFB – (311) ARKANSAS STATE at (312) GEORGIA STATE 7:30 ET  ESPNU

After laboring against better competition, Arkansas State has taken off when back in the Sun Belt on a 3-0 SU and ATS move. The has helped push the Red Wolves from -2 to -5.5 at Georgia State. However, don’t write off the Panthers completely, since they have covered the spread six straight times despite their 2-6 SU record. Arkansas State fits a system of mine that is 31-7 ATS, making this a harder call, thus I’ll grab the points.

Betting Trend -  66% backing Arkansas State

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under

CFB – (315) UCLA at (316) COLORADO 9:00 ET  FS1

This Pac-12 prime time telecast has the total on the move, up three points to 57.5. No question I can understand the rationale of this happening because UCLA has committed 13 turnovers in last three games while Colorado has forced nine in same time period. Nonetheless, I like this Buffaloes defense permitting 18.1 PPG, and the fact the Bruins are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more in last game. I’m looking the other way.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (709) OKLAHOMA CITY at (710) GOLDEN STATE 10:30 ET  TNT

Maybe NBA bettors are right, this will be a lower scoring game than the oddsmakers original release, now down to 222 from 226.5. The fan in me says Russell Westbrook will put a million shots to prove to Kevin Durant he is a traitor, with Durant wanting to show his old team he indeed made the right choice. Add in Golden State players wanting to have Durant’s back as a new teammate and the points should be flowing. For good measure, the Warriors are 17-3 OVER after a blowout win by 20 points or more the last two seasons.

Betting Trend -  51% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 244-236-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 163-127-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 415-382-3

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