For the rest of the weekend, line moves has combination of baseball and football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (183-143, 56.1% of late, including 33-21 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
MLB – (915) HOUSTON at (916) TORONTO 1:07 ET RTSW, RSN
In early afternoon action, many sportsbooks have lowered Toronto from around -180 to below -160 even with Aaron Sanchez (11-2, 2.85 ERA) on the mound for the Blue Jays. The Houston offense has gotten smoldering hot with 37 runs in past four games, but my concern is Collin McHugh (7-9, 4.69), who has never pitched well on the road and that continues this season with 5.69 ERA and the ‘Stros at 5-6 when taking the ball in enemy parks. Know this, road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, batting .315 or better over their last five games, against opponent with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 contests, are only 35-100 the last 19 years.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto wins
MLB – (929) BALTIMORE at (930) SAN FRANCISCO 9:05 ET MASN2, CSN-BA
Like his teammates, Madison Bumgarner (10-7, 2.20) is having a rotten second half of the season since the All-Star break at 0-3 and his team winless in his five outings. He has not been awful, permitting two or fewer runs in three of those starts, which resulted in one-run defeats. However, Bumgarner is to play blame for the six home runs allowed in this span and tonight faces the club with the most long balls in the majors in Baltimore. This has some sharp action moving numbers towards the Orioles, who have fallen from +170 to under +150 at some wagering outlets. This trend will not continue forever and the O’s Kevin Guasman (3-9, 4.02) and teammates are 0-8 on the road when he starts in 2016. Expect number to go up.
Betting Trend – 97% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco covers
NFLX – (273) SEATTLE at (274) KANSAS CITY 4:30 ET NFLN
Kansas City was sent out as 1.5-point home favorite, jumped all the way to -3.5 on Friday, but as of this morning has settled back at -3. Why they are attracting this much attention is rookie Trevone Boykin is expected to has the lion’s share of playing time for Seattle, which is thought to place them at disadvantage. However, coach Andy Reid of Kansas City is notorious for placing little value on preseason outcomes and is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less, which is why we will go the other way.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle covers
NFLX – (277) DALLAS at (278) LOS ANGELES 8:00 ET ESPN
There is expected to be a lot of excitement surrounding the Rams return to Los Angeles, first for this contest and later for home opener in the regular season. With Dallas similar to Kansas City in not worrying if they win August football games, L.A. has been bumped up from -3 to -5. The Rams and coach Jeff Fisher have more incentive to put on a good show and the Cowboys are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last couple decades.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Los Angeles
NFLX – Sunday– (281) HOUSTON at (282) SAN FRANCISCO 7:00 ET NFLN
San Francisco has yet to name Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick as starting quarterback even for this preseason match, but suffice to say, both will see action. Though neither is particularly effective, they would seem to better than Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden for Houston and this has helped push the total from 35 to 36.5. Look for Chip Kelly’s new club to want to make impression and this ballgame goes past the sportsbooks number.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 155-146-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 129-108-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 280-259-2